{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d51f6c2-5cb5-4af5-9a28-30a231af2d6a", "symbol": "SPRO", "name": "Spero Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.684, "architecture_energy": 88.816, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.725, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.33, "rotation_up": 8.13, "upward_expansion": 21.78, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 84.32, "downward_expansion": 99.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.320667, 1.667455, 2.08081, 2.209183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.26, "trend_reference": 2.320667, "distance_from_trend": -0.457053, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.670129, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245567, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.621517, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.479339, "excess_performance": -0.666792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.457053, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054205, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245567, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.823877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.516215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.479339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.216339, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4133839, "relative_activity": 0.714288, "balance": 0.216339, "dry_up": 2.080199, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.325171, "annualized_volatility": 0.725663, "from_high_reference": -0.590909, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.320667, "fair_value_reference": 1.670129, "structural_low": 1.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.069757, "positive_rate": 0.233333, "directional_follow_through": 0.766667, "median_excess_return": -0.078465, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 3.347158, "worst_return": -0.71875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.166304, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.201445, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 3.683333, "worst_return": -0.870704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.101168, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050253, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.867347, "worst_return": -0.940152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116352, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.507915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187279, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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17313157, "typical_volume": 4472111.65, "trend": 2.440667, "fair_value": 1.674681, "relative_strength": -39.171961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.113596, "energy": 77.834279, "activity_lines": [ 1.98, 2.256909, 2.428476, 2.440624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.19, "volume": 21391182, "typical_volume": 5488642.45, "trend": 2.403, "fair_value": 1.673206, "relative_strength": -52.863335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.560773, "energy": 87.629387, "activity_lines": [ 1.682, 2.028364, 2.305238, 2.359935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.17, "volume": 5317229, "typical_volume": 5650345.35, "trend": 2.363667, "fair_value": 1.671027, "relative_strength": -53.308406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.921659, "energy": 90.866621, "activity_lines": [ 1.45, 1.825273, 2.185381, 2.280387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.26, "volume": 4133839, "typical_volume": 5787354.6, "trend": 2.320667, "fair_value": 1.670129, "relative_strength": -51.621517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.684459, "energy": 88.816245, "activity_lines": [ 1.320667, 1.667455, 2.08081, 2.209183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }