{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d564403-e558-401f-8470-fc498c972ccb", "symbol": "YQQQ", "name": "YIELDMAX(R) SHORT N100 OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.263, "architecture_energy": 31.39, "architecture_maturity": 81.794, "architecture_confidence": 78.998, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.86, "rotation_up": 27.84, "upward_expansion": 22.05, "deceleration": 46.83, "rotation_down": 31.15, "downward_expansion": 60.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.917693, 9.852471, 9.96295, 10.277332 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.7098, "trend_reference": 10.610928, "distance_from_trend": -0.084925, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.317133, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142027, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.856533, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126144, "excess_performance": -0.313597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084925, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027219, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142027, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208565, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039135, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126144, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.882762, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 306478, "relative_activity": 0.841492, "balance": 0.882762, "dry_up": 0.768562, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033849, "annualized_volatility": 0.172949, "from_high_reference": -0.217816, "from_low_reference": 0.040028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.610928, "fair_value_reference": 11.317133, "structural_low": 9.336092, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009536, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0209, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.038498, "worst_return": -0.019426, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 9.901757, "volume": 153227, "typical_volume": 368272.1, "trend": 10.686374, "fair_value": 11.35711, "relative_strength": -17.567245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.49808, "energy": 53.676988, "activity_lines": [ 9.764368, 9.766081, 10.107194, 10.411684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.08025, "volume": 360574, "typical_volume": 375108.5, "trend": 10.666995, "fair_value": 11.344592, "relative_strength": -14.2656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.318445, "energy": 39.898807, "activity_lines": [ 9.886874, 9.815699, 10.062521, 10.372579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.123648, "volume": 299387, "typical_volume": 373394.05, "trend": 10.642781, "fair_value": 11.332738, "relative_strength": -13.832404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.063103, "energy": 28.672352, "activity_lines": [ 9.983197, 9.872837, 10.028701, 10.337524 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.7098, "volume": 306478, "typical_volume": 364207.95, "trend": 10.610928, "fair_value": 11.317133, "relative_strength": -20.856533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.263082, "energy": 31.390326, "activity_lines": [ 9.917693, 9.852471, 9.96295, 10.277332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }