{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d5835c5-28f6-4594-b35b-525215cd32cf", "symbol": "600968", "name": "CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 82.667, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.141, "architecture_energy": 29.975, "architecture_maturity": 71.445, "architecture_confidence": 70.22, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.8, "rotation_up": 34.25, "upward_expansion": 21.08, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 25.59, "downward_expansion": 59.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.812, 3.712879, 3.791517, 3.946124 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.87, "trend_reference": 4.097664, "distance_from_trend": -0.055559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.739343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034941, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.036027, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.14, "excess_performance": -0.096796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014111, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034941, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03036, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070234, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.045486, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 178745021, "relative_activity": 0.782292, "balance": 1.045486, "dry_up": 1.131989, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054066, "annualized_volatility": 0.301197, "from_high_reference": -0.332759, "from_low_reference": 0.155224 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.097664, "fair_value_reference": 3.739343, "structural_low": 3.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.02008, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.036793, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.171875, "worst_return": -0.098485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.118247, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.118642, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.244845, "worst_return": -0.026515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.099008, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.054181, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122449, "worst_return": -0.036206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 3.812, 3.712879, 3.791517, 3.946124 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }