{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d5a06ce-4933-4e28-8ca8-9970c6116287", "symbol": "MFT", "name": "Mackenzie Floating Rate Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.229, "architecture_energy": 74.465, "architecture_maturity": 4.838, "architecture_confidence": 64.078, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.58, "rotation_up": 75.02, "upward_expansion": 89.04, "deceleration": 45.03, "rotation_down": 14.28, "downward_expansion": 20.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.66073, 15.617741, 15.603646, 15.574919 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.7, "trend_reference": 15.537233, "distance_from_trend": 0.010476, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.994425, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.201792, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019308, "excess_performance": -0.101113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010476, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002791, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007429, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102018, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004657, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.651972, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17500, "relative_activity": 0.850754, "balance": 2.651972, "dry_up": 0.813077, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004621, "annualized_volatility": 0.021263, "from_high_reference": -0.000637, "from_low_reference": 0.023053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.537233, "fair_value_reference": 14.994425, "structural_low": 15.346229, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.004801, "positive_rate": 0.675, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.009543, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.019779, "worst_return": -0.014886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011471, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.027414, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.036216, "worst_return": -0.00528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028095, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.023284, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.055555, "worst_return": -0.06572, "sufficient": true }, { 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15.570393, 15.545626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.666942, "volume": 21800, "typical_volume": 22380.0, "trend": 15.522901, "fair_value": 14.967029, "relative_strength": -8.770971, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.87929, "energy": 34.664664, "activity_lines": [ 15.601234, 15.58649, 15.58191, 15.555289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.657001, "volume": 11600, "typical_volume": 21365.0, "trend": 15.529839, "fair_value": 14.980689, "relative_strength": -7.981841, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.641486, "energy": 54.77946, "activity_lines": [ 15.627178, 15.59804, 15.591188, 15.563941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.7, "volume": 17500, "typical_volume": 20570.0, "trend": 15.537233, "fair_value": 14.994425, "relative_strength": -10.201792, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.229239, "energy": 74.46538, "activity_lines": [ 15.66073, 15.617741, 15.603646, 15.574919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }