{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2d5d83af-e505-4419-a3ec-d862d94c3f52",
    "symbol": "NHI",
    "name": "National Health Investors Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 79.853,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -14.697,
    "architecture_energy": 15.817,
    "architecture_maturity": 26.946,
    "architecture_confidence": 58.093,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 59.16,
        "rotation_up": 35.74,
        "upward_expansion": 31.84,
        "deceleration": 45.98,
        "rotation_down": 22.09,
        "downward_expansion": 42.51
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        77.284667,
        76.58857,
        75.902443,
        77.23817
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 75.3,
    "trend_reference": 78.927585,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.045961,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 66.620166,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130288,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -13.471875,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.094127,
    "excess_performance": -0.219752,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.045961,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003687,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.130288,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.028244,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.134719,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005932,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.094127,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.646369,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1575395,
      "relative_activity": 0.626322,
      "balance": 1.646369,
      "dry_up": 0.752199,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.059879,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.289584,
      "from_high_reference": -0.166593,
      "from_low_reference": 0.121702
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 78.927585,
      "fair_value_reference": 66.620166,
      "structural_low": 67.130143,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": 0.021294,
        "positive_rate": 0.684211,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.684211,
        "median_excess_return": 0.023689,
        "regime_survival": 0.473684,
        "best_return": 0.143412,
        "worst_return": -0.079394,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.007869,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.031236,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.123607,
        "worst_return": -0.207933,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.021308,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.086113,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.18828,
        "worst_return": -0.065411,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.012821,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008423,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.171602,
        "worst_return": -0.045497,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.070773,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.078713,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004871,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.035386,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.066097,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.021164,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.049089,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.042479,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.085049,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.056278,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-06-12",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.117481,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.065061,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -17.266092,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
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      },
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        "typical_volume": 1786330.85,
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        "fair_value": 65.066624,
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 9995392,
        "typical_volume": 2445471.25,
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        "fair_value": 65.642171,
        "relative_strength": -8.195336,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 2510229.7,
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        "fair_value": 65.826668,
        "relative_strength": -11.781367,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -37.826624,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 79.61,
        "volume": 2066718,
        "typical_volume": 2494368.4,
        "trend": 78.772902,
        "fair_value": 66.026837,
        "relative_strength": -5.265109,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -14.505732,
        "energy": 21.828944,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 80.54,
        "volume": 1954269,
        "typical_volume": 2500916.0,
        "trend": 78.94575,
        "fair_value": 66.23774,
        "relative_strength": -3.593258,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 4.51739,
        "energy": 22.357962,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.582373,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 76.65,
        "volume": 1971675,
        "typical_volume": 2533265.55,
        "trend": 78.967902,
        "fair_value": 66.425816,
        "relative_strength": -9.098715,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.579265,
        "energy": 18.147269,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.159333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 75.3,
        "volume": 1575395,
        "typical_volume": 2515312.05,
        "trend": 78.927585,
        "fair_value": 66.620166,
        "relative_strength": -13.471875,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -14.697437,
        "energy": 15.816752,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}