{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d659ac8-223a-4e39-8636-5567552cbd95", "symbol": "BLU", "name": "Blue Star Capital plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.169, "architecture_energy": 84.539, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.696, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 18.98, "upward_expansion": 21.18, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 71.12, "downward_expansion": 99.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.044333, 0.0495, 0.066976, 0.076435 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0425, "trend_reference": 0.085917, "distance_from_trend": -0.505335, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.104897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.594842, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.143028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.564103, "excess_performance": -0.615338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.505335, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161789, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.594842, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340945, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.62143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320568, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.564103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.729206, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52026, "relative_activity": 0.0833, "balance": 0.729206, "dry_up": 0.177359, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.333846, "annualized_volatility": 0.75604, "from_high_reference": -0.756795, "from_low_reference": 0.0625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.085917, "fair_value_reference": 0.104897, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.282051, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.059658, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.9, "worst_return": -0.547945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.11654, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 3.08, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.360114, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.4, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.045, "volume": 204320, "typical_volume": 642233.6, "trend": 0.091667, "fair_value": 0.10883, "relative_strength": -61.808111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.130892, "energy": 83.237387, "activity_lines": [ 0.0495, 0.061773, 0.079179, 0.085301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.045, "volume": 117971, "typical_volume": 638865.1, "trend": 0.090083, "fair_value": 0.107388, "relative_strength": -61.380758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.734906, "energy": 85.7747, "activity_lines": [ 0.046667, 0.056955, 0.074976, 0.08229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.045, "volume": 68768, "typical_volume": 637670.2, "trend": 0.088167, "fair_value": 0.106163, "relative_strength": -60.855543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.706469, "energy": 83.757345, "activity_lines": [ 0.0455, 0.053091, 0.070988, 0.079382 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0425, "volume": 52026, "typical_volume": 624558.9, "trend": 0.085917, "fair_value": 0.104897, "relative_strength": -62.143028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.168631, "energy": 84.539322, "activity_lines": [ 0.044333, 0.0495, 0.066976, 0.076435 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }