{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d6d921f-634a-413d-8c1e-27ee26143760", "symbol": "CIA", "name": "Champion Iron Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.439, "architecture_energy": 69.923, "architecture_maturity": 44.905, "architecture_confidence": 85.148, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 18.3, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 50.19, "rotation_down": 71.8, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.644667, 3.769427, 4.08187, 4.305972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.5, "trend_reference": 4.642447, "distance_from_trend": -0.246087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.098866, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.313573, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.751044, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.329502, "excess_performance": -0.449923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.246087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095127, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.313573, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271274, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.33751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288724, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.329502, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.300541, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3780200, "relative_activity": 2.155342, "balance": 0.300541, "dry_up": 2.507049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07836, "annualized_volatility": 0.367451, "from_high_reference": -0.429967, "from_low_reference": 0.051051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.642447, "fair_value_reference": 5.098866, "structural_low": 3.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.015066, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.036074, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.332673, "worst_return": -0.227848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.076644, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.021212, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.659913, "worst_return": -0.190739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.260178, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.238088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.694021, "worst_return": -0.110981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"relative_strength": -25.49024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.380894, "energy": 85.556315, "activity_lines": [ 3.942, 4.09316, 4.393602, 4.599549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.87, "volume": 8347900, "typical_volume": 1591010.0, "trend": 4.85178, "fair_value": 5.121198, "relative_strength": -25.746486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.058515, "energy": 75.546951, "activity_lines": [ 3.914, 4.016845, 4.326062, 4.533047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.88, "volume": 1967700, "typical_volume": 1599110.0, "trend": 4.794114, "fair_value": 5.113518, "relative_strength": -25.258263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.782666, "energy": 63.466625, "activity_lines": [ 3.9, 3.962053, 4.265903, 4.470352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.47, "volume": 3492400, "typical_volume": 1640320.0, "trend": 4.72378, "fair_value": 5.10553, "relative_strength": -32.525521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.779703, "energy": 71.198864, "activity_lines": [ 3.756, 3.85079, 4.169791, 4.384925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.5, "volume": 3780200, "typical_volume": 1753875.0, "trend": 4.642447, "fair_value": 5.098866, "relative_strength": -33.751044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.438623, "energy": 69.923081, "activity_lines": [ 3.644667, 3.769427, 4.08187, 4.305972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }