{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d75d1c9-5f9f-4403-88eb-71c098be2f8b", "symbol": "TRAU", "name": "INVESCO MARKETS II PLC INVESCO", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.357, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.475, "architecture_energy": 53.119, "architecture_maturity": 2.388, "architecture_confidence": 87.73, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.31, "rotation_up": 10.51, "upward_expansion": 11.06, "deceleration": 38.99, "rotation_down": 61.15, "downward_expansion": 82.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.897334, 44.002728, 44.04081, 44.087715 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.935001, "trend_reference": 44.149333, "distance_from_trend": -0.004855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.250272, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.13152, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006052, "excess_performance": -0.057287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000136, "read": "Falling" 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43.557899, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.935001, "volume": 4972, "typical_volume": 20281.25, "trend": 44.149333, "fair_value": 42.250272, "relative_strength": -8.13152, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.474763, "energy": 53.118592, "activity_lines": [ 43.897334, 44.002728, 44.04081, 44.087715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }