{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d7d78f8-1cf0-4436-8d38-bd6a0e7121ca", "symbol": "LFG", "name": "Liberty Financial Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.595, "architecture_energy": 11.256, "architecture_maturity": 31.693, "architecture_confidence": 59.511, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.81, "rotation_up": 32.16, "upward_expansion": 32.15, "deceleration": 46.9, "rotation_down": 19.03, "downward_expansion": 40.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.272667, 3.256916, 3.2298, 3.28336 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.26, "trend_reference": 3.395144, "distance_from_trend": -0.039805, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.173527, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027248, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.367178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.13913, "excess_performance": -0.202835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039805, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063333, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027248, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067387, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.536878, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129159, "relative_activity": 0.505136, "balance": 0.536878, "dry_up": 0.70409, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045109, "annualized_volatility": 0.197116, "from_high_reference": -0.248557, "from_low_reference": 0.083546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.395144, "fair_value_reference": 3.173527, "structural_low": 3.008641, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.021333, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.003027, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.113846, "worst_return": -0.102273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024259, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.036769, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.137931, "worst_return": -0.128558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.073694, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001642, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.118708, "worst_return": -0.13913, "sufficient": true 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018617, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135869, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022013, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116661, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136491, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001849, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003077, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.980064, "volume": 111013, "typical_volume": 150773.95, "trend": 2.724256, "fair_value": 3.399772, "relative_strength": 9.467934, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.224673, "energy": 25.124956, "activity_lines": [ 3.239028, 3.180951, 3.227886, 3.327862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.32, "volume": 44257, "typical_volume": 258135.25, "trend": 3.469462, "fair_value": 3.166175, "relative_strength": -8.663655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.379287, "energy": 25.699371, "activity_lines": [ 3.28277, 3.208758, 3.229958, 3.317071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.3, "volume": 388880, "typical_volume": 264724.4, "trend": 3.444946, "fair_value": 3.16861, "relative_strength": -8.885809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.611576, "energy": 20.478895, "activity_lines": [ 3.300667, 3.232565, 3.231802, 3.306138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.25, "volume": 157823, "typical_volume": 256228.25, "trend": 3.418125, "fair_value": 3.1713, "relative_strength": -12.153615, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.254231, "energy": 13.472876, "activity_lines": [ 3.287333, 3.244974, 3.229973, 3.293561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.26, "volume": 129159, "typical_volume": 255691.45, "trend": 3.395144, "fair_value": 3.173527, "relative_strength": -14.367178, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.59548, "energy": 11.255762, "activity_lines": [ 3.272667, 3.256916, 3.2298, 3.28336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }