{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d81dc1e-c6df-4ebf-9b0b-a7fdbaab5542", "symbol": "ASM1N", "name": "ASM International NV", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.942, "architecture_energy": 37.686, "architecture_maturity": 67.428, "architecture_confidence": 88.792, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.18, "rotation_up": 29.57, "upward_expansion": 65.99, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 27.95, "downward_expansion": 20.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 17420.311979, 17689.061648, 16932.177818, 16246.177999 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17388.640625, "trend_reference": 15383.471745, "distance_from_trend": 0.130346, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11201.032543, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.552414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 27.543775, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.19291, "excess_performance": 0.247577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130346, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175979, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.552414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210036, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.275438, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21166, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.19291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.206897, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.206897, "dry_up": 1.823529, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044574, "annualized_volatility": 0.455321, "from_high_reference": -0.128989, "from_low_reference": 0.986174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15383.471745, "fair_value_reference": 11201.032543, "structural_low": 13957.599609, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.080019, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.104224, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.176901, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.085711, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021618, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279856, "worst_return": -0.121194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.263127, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.057374, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.273643, "worst_return": -0.01087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059132, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.189156, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035883, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, 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"typical_volume": 21.25, "trend": 14923.002344, "fair_value": 11080.933359, "relative_strength": 30.178814, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.234764, "energy": 64.462948, "activity_lines": [ 17832.317188, 17779.324538, 16634.676995, 15942.884976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17388.640625, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 21.25, "trend": 15153.237044, "fair_value": 11140.982951, "relative_strength": 28.343983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.54982, "energy": 47.805427, "activity_lines": [ 17623.657292, 17765.35483, 16790.666839, 16101.958413 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17388.640625, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 21.25, "trend": 15383.471745, "fair_value": 11201.032543, "relative_strength": 27.543775, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.9417, "energy": 37.685738, "activity_lines": [ 17420.311979, 17689.061648, 16932.177818, 16246.177999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }