{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d885fe7-58a3-41a5-8136-96f122c29846", "symbol": "CLFD", "name": "Clearfield Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.882, "architecture_energy": 47.863, "architecture_maturity": 15.843, "architecture_confidence": 84.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.01, "rotation_up": 14.6, "upward_expansion": 22.65, "deceleration": 52.4, "rotation_down": 72.53, "downward_expansion": 54.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.764, 32.305091, 34.938762, 34.208774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 27.48, "trend_reference": 33.23, "distance_from_trend": -0.173036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.207692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.320736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.110967, "excess_performance": -0.298421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173036, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050043, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.356328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263207, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248564, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110967, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.921455, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1686653, "relative_activity": 1.305769, "balance": 0.921455, "dry_up": 0.913722, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222985, "annualized_volatility": 0.625257, "from_high_reference": -0.478855, "from_low_reference": 0.156566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.23, "fair_value_reference": 33.207692, "structural_low": 23.76, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.037947, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094776, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087458, "worst_return": -0.163351, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.268116, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.372515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.12724, "worst_return": -0.408992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.218519, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.406697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.088673, "worst_return": -0.348365, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109214, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 38.46, "volume": 550476, "typical_volume": 1404978.45, "trend": 47.717, "fair_value": 55.350962, "relative_strength": -54.965375, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"fair_value": 33.35641, "relative_strength": -13.780828, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.846539, "energy": 27.339435, "activity_lines": [ 32.359333, 35.339091, 36.016333, 34.782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.26, "volume": 1268191, "typical_volume": 1228181.35, "trend": 33.325333, "fair_value": 33.291474, "relative_strength": -15.343138, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.163049, "energy": 29.205459, "activity_lines": [ 31.246, 33.952364, 35.614238, 34.585892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.48, "volume": 1686653, "typical_volume": 1291692.95, "trend": 33.23, "fair_value": 33.207692, "relative_strength": -26.320736, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.882443, "energy": 47.863108, "activity_lines": [ 29.764, 32.305091, 34.938762, 34.208774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }