{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d8bc78a-da67-486b-8d32-0ea80b972974", "symbol": "VRV", "name": "Verve Group SE N", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.642, "architecture_energy": 54.313, "architecture_maturity": 10.459, "architecture_confidence": 84.436, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.96, "rotation_up": 11.3, "upward_expansion": 10.37, "deceleration": 39.97, "rotation_down": 67.6, "downward_expansion": 86.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.351867, 1.391691, 1.4578, 1.462019 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.366, "trend_reference": 1.485967, "distance_from_trend": -0.080733, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.113494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.353677, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.734712, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018643, "excess_performance": -0.045997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080733, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066584, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.353677, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105497, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257347, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001231, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018643, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.077206, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 328583, "relative_activity": 0.53419, "balance": 1.077206, "dry_up": 0.430857, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111274, "annualized_volatility": 0.53586, "from_high_reference": -0.478626, "from_low_reference": 0.229523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.485967, "fair_value_reference": 2.113494, "structural_low": 1.111, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.036654, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.038566, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.347707, "worst_return": -0.287116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.146766, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.144557, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.862579, "worst_return": -0.352941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.271732, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.303947, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.637765, "worst_return": -0.430108, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.223819, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.203988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141319, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.429771, "active": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.33996, "energy": 43.953981, "activity_lines": [ 1.404667, 1.478564, 1.496529, 1.495247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.32, "volume": 300361, "typical_volume": 713141.4, "trend": 1.517067, "fair_value": 2.112949, "relative_strength": -27.035555, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.629708, "energy": 59.309484, "activity_lines": [ 1.3694, 1.442673, 1.480305, 1.481619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.349, "volume": 314328, "typical_volume": 647431.2, "trend": 1.501733, "fair_value": 2.113712, "relative_strength": -25.780888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.210014, "energy": 56.123881, "activity_lines": [ 1.355733, 1.414727, 1.4679, 1.470776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.366, "volume": 328583, "typical_volume": 615105.55, "trend": 1.485967, "fair_value": 2.113494, "relative_strength": -25.734712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.641853, "energy": 54.312996, "activity_lines": [ 1.351867, 1.391691, 1.4578, 1.462019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }