{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d8da6d2-3ede-4d65-ac6f-ddd4bd93d949", "symbol": "XMS", "name": "iShares MSCI Min Vol USA Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.284, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.766, "architecture_energy": 73.705, "architecture_maturity": 9.455, "architecture_confidence": 61.048, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.39, "rotation_up": 76.94, "upward_expansion": 89.83, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 11.17, "downward_expansion": 14.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.345333, 39.05474, 38.717026, 38.545951 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.07, "trend_reference": 38.411003, "distance_from_trend": 0.043191, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.632283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093844, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.983014, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.045366, "excess_performance": -0.075056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043191, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000519, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034999, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048026, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045366, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.271028, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5400, "relative_activity": 0.490018, "balance": 1.271028, "dry_up": 0.190563, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015212, "annualized_volatility": 0.092658, "from_high_reference": -0.004225, "from_low_reference": 0.087972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.411003, "fair_value_reference": 36.632283, "structural_low": 36.830002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.008922, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004289, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.036151, "worst_return": -0.049911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011443, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.004795, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.097941, "worst_return": -0.061953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044114, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.007772, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.084526, "worst_return": -0.086786, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 37.929081, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11570.0, "trend": 38.361112, "fair_value": 36.279629, "relative_strength": -12.528205, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.861294, "energy": 14.956964, "activity_lines": [ 38.289358, 38.278807, 38.164484, 38.218186 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 38.029999, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 11600.0, "trend": 38.316393, "fair_value": 36.324356, "relative_strength": -11.831029, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.695146, "energy": 20.788928, "activity_lines": [ 38.158812, 38.244921, 38.147598, 38.196824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.310001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11475.0, "trend": 38.324848, "fair_value": 36.379378, "relative_strength": -9.081364, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.955985, "energy": 21.905323, "activity_lines": [ 38.502047, 38.44449, 38.254051, 38.260928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.060001, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 11295.0, "trend": 38.325647, "fair_value": 36.431024, "relative_strength": -9.355203, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.737302, "energy": 48.587622, "activity_lines": [ 38.719742, 38.57114, 38.33393, 38.308357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.220001, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 11370.0, "trend": 38.332458, "fair_value": 36.479769, "relative_strength": -8.445025, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.932128, "energy": 75.386499, "activity_lines": [ 38.950606, 38.708132, 38.427474, 38.366057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.509998, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 11060.0, "trend": 38.307806, "fair_value": 36.525039, "relative_strength": -9.895159, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.498609, "energy": 67.930121, "activity_lines": [ 38.884, 38.695461, 38.452534, 38.377511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.200001, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 10795.0, "trend": 38.351379, "fair_value": 36.576063, "relative_strength": -7.46002, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.606336, "energy": 64.299439, "activity_lines": [ 39.008667, 38.800222, 38.545397, 38.435072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.07, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 11020.0, "trend": 38.411003, "fair_value": 36.632283, "relative_strength": -7.983014, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.766207, "energy": 73.705445, "activity_lines": [ 39.345333, 39.05474, 38.717026, 38.545951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }