{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d919f38-5b3a-48f8-9cce-a537a83f8ce1", "symbol": "605376", "name": "Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.21, "architecture_energy": 29.071, "architecture_maturity": 76.878, "architecture_confidence": 92.654, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.1, "rotation_up": 18.59, "upward_expansion": 50.46, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 49.86, "downward_expansion": 30.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 151.808667, 176.10625, 171.291619, 155.802262 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 163.970001, "trend_reference": 134.019506, "distance_from_trend": 0.223479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.145752, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.144456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 66.223908, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.761414, "excess_performance": 0.804618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.223479, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.492053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.144456, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223078, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.662239, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.761414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.956645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91832995, "relative_activity": 1.756381, "balance": 0.956645, "dry_up": 1.561687, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.223124, "annualized_volatility": 0.878191, "from_high_reference": -0.396103, "from_low_reference": 3.128147 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 134.019506, "fair_value_reference": 52.145752, "structural_low": 83.779999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.135201, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.11619, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.339869, "worst_return": -0.014506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.666786, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.617332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.383383, "worst_return": 0.159827, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.240482, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.171231, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.059128, "worst_return": 0.421835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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201.307132, 199.893275, 172.548408, 152.37064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.869995, "volume": 77546315, "typical_volume": 47316334.75, "trend": 128.363173, "fair_value": 50.676072, "relative_strength": 50.718332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.231626, "energy": 22.352308, "activity_lines": [ 175.098665, 190.557525, 171.548145, 153.147876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 136.270004, "volume": 90848168, "typical_volume": 49848698.45, "trend": 130.733839, "fair_value": 51.321568, "relative_strength": 45.404952, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.744425, "energy": 26.865394, "activity_lines": [ 154.579333, 180.659509, 170.202692, 153.657994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 163.970001, "volume": 91832995, "typical_volume": 52285352.35, "trend": 134.019506, "fair_value": 52.145752, "relative_strength": 66.223908, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.210105, "energy": 29.070807, "activity_lines": [ 151.808667, 176.10625, 171.291619, 155.802262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }