{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d91c249-920d-446b-9310-d6a0c472f29c", "symbol": "003816", "name": "CGN Power Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.506, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.967, "architecture_energy": 20.582, "architecture_maturity": 26.937, "architecture_confidence": 87.178, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.32, "rotation_up": 31.21, "upward_expansion": 21.02, "deceleration": 72.01, "rotation_down": 36.27, "downward_expansion": 37.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.992667, 3.972405, 4.14886, 4.196729 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.89, "trend_reference": 4.185928, "distance_from_trend": -0.070696, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.786498, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027334, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.385057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.01039, "excess_performance": 0.00299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070696, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009874, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027334, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01039, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.591316, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 676639422, "relative_activity": 1.104166, "balance": 1.591316, "dry_up": 0.978923, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069557, "annualized_volatility": 0.323311, "from_high_reference": -0.212551, "from_low_reference": 0.089636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.185928, "fair_value_reference": 3.786498, "structural_low": 3.706852, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.036056, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001733, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089157, "worst_return": -0.096892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.089491, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.164635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243236, "worst_return": 0.010126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034239, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.085104, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.110163, "worst_return": -0.014035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02758, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.199363, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.631739, "worst_return": -0.033547, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078239, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002531, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023809, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.109489, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01626, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027248, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077922, "active": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 3.883439, 4.023014, 4.229687, 4.225102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.06, "volume": 684426910, "typical_volume": 666783501.35, "trend": 4.172595, "fair_value": 3.772359, "relative_strength": 0.884222, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.404777, "energy": 36.792162, "activity_lines": [ 3.940192, 4.001417, 4.205316, 4.21829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.13, "volume": 453016983, "typical_volume": 624056812.95, "trend": 4.181595, "fair_value": 3.780075, "relative_strength": 4.320182, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.016386, "energy": 20.919401, "activity_lines": [ 4.015644, 4.005638, 4.188041, 4.215542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.89, "volume": 676639422, "typical_volume": 612805928.95, "trend": 4.185928, "fair_value": 3.786498, "relative_strength": -6.385057, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.966833, "energy": 20.581844, "activity_lines": [ 3.992667, 3.972405, 4.14886, 4.196729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }