{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d953002-7cdd-44da-8cbd-f8d8ce62820d", "symbol": "BATAINDIA", "name": "Bata India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.419, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.583, "architecture_energy": 11.764, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.443, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.04, "rotation_up": 25.7, "upward_expansion": 18.48, "deceleration": 42.52, "rotation_down": 34.58, "downward_expansion": 59.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 698.742049, 696.528286, 696.700803, 704.779962 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 720.5, "trend_reference": 731.774544, "distance_from_trend": -0.015407, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1220.431519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.409635, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.003013, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.151454, "excess_performance": -0.107745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015407, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115062, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.409635, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03329, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089309, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151454, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.821639, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3807114, "relative_activity": 3.77786, "balance": 1.821639, "dry_up": 1.86606, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05448, "annualized_volatility": 0.311495, "from_high_reference": -0.438207, "from_low_reference": 0.190909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 731.774544, "fair_value_reference": 1220.431519, "structural_low": 605.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.020945, "positive_rate": 0.314286, "directional_follow_through": 0.685714, "median_excess_return": -0.033222, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.166495, "worst_return": -0.198796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.090065, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.083722, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.179661, "worst_return": -0.210368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.060045, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.135636, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.109742, "worst_return": -0.330514, 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-20.028392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.77454, "energy": 30.984329, "activity_lines": [ 687.320703, 690.7544, 694.142405, 705.94961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 720.5, "volume": 3807114, "typical_volume": 1007743.65, "trend": 731.774544, "fair_value": 1220.431519, "relative_strength": -17.003013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.582721, "energy": 11.764337, "activity_lines": [ 698.742049, 696.528286, 696.700803, 704.779962 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }