{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d969fc6-8fd2-411d-8cc5-b2cff542526c", "symbol": "601515", "name": "Quzhou DFP New Material Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.764, "architecture_energy": 54.943, "architecture_maturity": 54.984, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 26.12, "upward_expansion": 9.71, "deceleration": 59.18, "rotation_down": 53.04, "downward_expansion": 83.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.277333, 3.305636, 3.658286, 3.875785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.42, "trend_reference": 4.100667, "distance_from_trend": -0.165989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.85509, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112861, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.135047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.179856, "excess_performance": -0.136652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165989, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084127, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112861, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43412, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88387039, "relative_activity": 0.618516, "balance": 0.43412, "dry_up": 0.651153, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098291, "annualized_volatility": 0.414774, "from_high_reference": -0.360748, "from_low_reference": 0.159322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.100667, "fair_value_reference": 3.85509, "structural_low": 2.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.004587, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.007269, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.388278, "worst_return": -0.186564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.034468, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.397112, "worst_return": -0.068677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011048, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.056238, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.309524, "worst_return": -0.115345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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3.364909, 3.78419, 3.977806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.29, "volume": 70264591, "typical_volume": 146193480.15, "trend": 4.13, "fair_value": 3.861413, "relative_strength": -21.45907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.350845, "energy": 69.255682, "activity_lines": [ 3.202667, 3.313818, 3.711905, 3.921591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.42, "volume": 88387039, "typical_volume": 142901724.2, "trend": 4.100667, "fair_value": 3.85509, "relative_strength": -20.135047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.763802, "energy": 54.943153, "activity_lines": [ 3.277333, 3.305636, 3.658286, 3.875785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }