{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2d9d32e9-c825-4538-9fae-26722b50b540", "symbol": "IRT", "name": "Independence Realty Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 56.38, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.983, "architecture_energy": 31.867, "architecture_maturity": 30.966, "architecture_confidence": 55.665, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.95, "rotation_up": 43.11, "upward_expansion": 71.77, "deceleration": 64.23, "rotation_down": 21.17, "downward_expansion": 3.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.842, 16.781995, 16.540241, 16.347183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.26, "trend_reference": 16.241418, "distance_from_trend": 0.062715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.522436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04464, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.157876, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051735, "excess_performance": -0.07389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062715, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000613, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056305, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067011, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051735, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.649579, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20996648, "relative_activity": 1.595934, "balance": 1.649579, "dry_up": 1.123375, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050356, "annualized_volatility": 0.238237, "from_high_reference": -0.024583, "from_low_reference": 0.182192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.241418, "fair_value_reference": 16.522436, "structural_low": 14.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.022782, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -7e-05, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.074887, "worst_return": -0.072622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057073, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.055113, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.20562, "worst_return": -0.160881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007016, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.087187, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.277854, "worst_return": -0.118236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.069257, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.312545, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.373029, "worst_return": -0.157412, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008997, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.216038, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05213, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119392, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051043, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.138762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049685, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035797, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034622, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.457866, "volume": 8223704, "typical_volume": 8349906.35, "trend": 15.409609, "fair_value": 16.027304, "relative_strength": -13.26165, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", 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"trend": 16.28062, "fair_value": 16.485762, "relative_strength": -6.939927, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.132958, "energy": 37.835451, "activity_lines": [ 16.768225, 16.625548, 16.327075, 16.236212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.61, "volume": 8671660, "typical_volume": 12659503.5, "trend": 16.262497, "fair_value": 16.494938, "relative_strength": -6.127919, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.29922, "energy": 29.915105, "activity_lines": [ 16.754667, 16.64621, 16.379488, 16.257463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.63, "volume": 14405742, "typical_volume": 12689428.1, "trend": 16.236844, "fair_value": 16.50661, "relative_strength": -6.723076, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.778305, "energy": 24.28138, "activity_lines": [ 16.684, 16.656353, 16.432245, 16.281173 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.26, "volume": 20996648, "typical_volume": 13156339.6, "trend": 16.241418, "fair_value": 16.522436, "relative_strength": -6.157876, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.983185, "energy": 31.867233, "activity_lines": [ 16.842, 16.781995, 16.540241, 16.347183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }