{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2da07e49-f02c-40bb-806a-fdcf6841db46", "symbol": "300808", "name": "Guangdong DP Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.697, "architecture_energy": 86.408, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.959, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 10.06, "upward_expansion": 21.61, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 78.32, "downward_expansion": 97.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.592, 19.066363, 21.463095, 23.28243 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.18, "trend_reference": 25.639667, "distance_from_trend": -0.290942, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.487175, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191539, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.306918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.45634, "excess_performance": -0.463739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.290942, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106684, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191539, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.505029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149719, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.45634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.477181, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8694200, "relative_activity": 0.857099, "balance": 0.477181, "dry_up": 0.901159, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125413, "annualized_volatility": 0.446297, "from_high_reference": -0.518666, "from_low_reference": 0.153553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.639667, "fair_value_reference": 22.487175, "structural_low": 15.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02462, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.00309, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.158092, "worst_return": -0.204575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005899, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.081499, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.221787, "worst_return": -0.297482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.046158, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.192841, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.284247, "worst_return": -0.163324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 80.273823, "activity_lines": [ 21.442667, 22.708909, 24.227762, 25.679505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.08, "volume": 8669310, "typical_volume": 10591921.95, "trend": 26.937, "fair_value": 22.421436, "relative_strength": -37.236129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.624592, "energy": 86.412425, "activity_lines": [ 20.146, 21.643818, 23.496619, 25.080301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.459999, "volume": 10420805, "typical_volume": 10353467.2, "trend": 26.494, "fair_value": 22.439176, "relative_strength": -42.323471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.602525, "energy": 92.35444, "activity_lines": [ 18.653333, 20.476363, 22.681905, 24.404366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.959999, "volume": 8780200, "typical_volume": 10180582.2, "trend": 26.036, "fair_value": 22.458663, "relative_strength": -38.597055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.115737, "energy": 90.427835, "activity_lines": [ 17.745333, 19.575091, 21.984714, 23.789269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.18, "volume": 8694200, "typical_volume": 10143747.2, "trend": 25.639667, "fair_value": 22.487175, "relative_strength": -36.306918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.696561, "energy": 86.408466, "activity_lines": [ 17.592, 19.066363, 21.463095, 23.28243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }