{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2da17f26-a714-4479-8376-872112f0f23f", "symbol": "603595", "name": "Zhejiang Tony Electronic Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.765, "architecture_energy": 30.242, "architecture_maturity": 78.267, "architecture_confidence": 95.793, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.79, "rotation_up": 20.17, "upward_expansion": 55.57, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 45.46, "downward_expansion": 23.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.108666, 26.731454, 25.368619, 23.351376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.059999, "trend_reference": 21.002, "distance_from_trend": 0.240834, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.353149, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165831, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.664392, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.540189, "excess_performance": 0.583393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.240834, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186665, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165831, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.376978, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.256644, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.36853, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.540189, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.81467, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15371750, "relative_activity": 0.934174, "balance": 1.81467, "dry_up": 0.929399, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166834, "annualized_volatility": 0.743136, "from_high_reference": -0.302276, "from_low_reference": 0.814763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.002, "fair_value_reference": 22.353149, "structural_low": 14.36, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.038548, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.022368, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.548987, "worst_return": -0.275923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.063665, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.03941, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.390437, "worst_return": -0.332354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032003, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032664, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.256232, "worst_return": -0.223283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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23.700001, "volume": 15090657, "typical_volume": 16119738.85, "trend": 20.335333, "fair_value": 22.651251, "relative_strength": 20.390224, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.65767, "energy": 63.681332, "activity_lines": [ 29.935334, 28.879636, 25.046571, 22.79314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.65, "volume": 18159314, "typical_volume": 16216558.15, "trend": 20.545, "fair_value": 22.531575, "relative_strength": 13.405459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.946448, "energy": 34.14843, "activity_lines": [ 27.115334, 28.030727, 25.107238, 22.942473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.52, "volume": 12551000, "typical_volume": 16227635.55, "trend": 20.697, "fair_value": 22.418811, "relative_strength": 7.191606, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.39416, "energy": 29.059677, "activity_lines": [ 24.34, 26.96, 25.032429, 23.005376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.059999, "volume": 15371750, "typical_volume": 16454915.05, "trend": 21.002, "fair_value": 22.353149, "relative_strength": 25.664392, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.765102, "energy": 30.241832, "activity_lines": [ 24.108666, 26.731454, 25.368619, 23.351376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }