{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2db195d8-8dbe-46ad-b607-1f70385b5c67", "symbol": "GTLINFRA", "name": "GTL Infrastructure Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.048, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.929, "architecture_energy": 22.14, "architecture_maturity": 41.445, "architecture_confidence": 82.626, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.19, "rotation_up": 14.48, "upward_expansion": 42.44, "deceleration": 82.94, "rotation_down": 45.94, "downward_expansion": 36.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.239333, 1.298364, 1.329952, 1.289892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.24, "trend_reference": 1.234333, "distance_from_trend": 0.004591, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.635064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.24162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.292237, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097345, "excess_performance": 0.141054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004591, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021517, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.24162, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110911, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084425, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097345, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.628106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 289874576, "relative_activity": 1.22181, "balance": 0.628106, "dry_up": 0.924547, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101117, "annualized_volatility": 0.490366, "from_high_reference": -0.257485, "from_low_reference": 0.291667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.234333, "fair_value_reference": 1.635064, "structural_low": 0.96, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011292, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.380645, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.250568, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.222454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.842105, "worst_return": -0.224199, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.125714, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.124742, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.842105, "worst_return": 0.0625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177665, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 41.249381, "energy": 24.68387, "activity_lines": [ 1.386, 1.418727, 1.347476, 1.289634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.24, "volume": 255254480, "typical_volume": 232252224.65, "trend": 1.231667, "fair_value": 1.625833, "relative_strength": -4.587944, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.755794, "energy": 23.098157, "activity_lines": [ 1.326, 1.386545, 1.34481, 1.29028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.22, "volume": 221093440, "typical_volume": 233666626.95, "trend": 1.232333, "fair_value": 1.628846, "relative_strength": -3.432843, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.956039, "energy": 22.175856, "activity_lines": [ 1.276667, 1.353273, 1.339571, 1.289527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.23, "volume": 111173021, "typical_volume": 232283665.15, "trend": 1.232, "fair_value": 1.631923, "relative_strength": -4.707348, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.319867, "energy": 20.642121, "activity_lines": [ 1.250667, 1.324182, 1.334714, 1.289376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.24, "volume": 289874576, "typical_volume": 237250057.35, "trend": 1.234333, "fair_value": 1.635064, "relative_strength": -4.292237, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.92914, "energy": 22.139784, "activity_lines": [ 1.239333, 1.298364, 1.329952, 1.289892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }