{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2db1f810-7ead-49fe-9666-1db12b51441a",
    "symbol": "JAG",
    "name": "Jaguar Mining Inc.",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 93.629,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -25.329,
    "architecture_energy": 21.948,
    "architecture_maturity": 63.937,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.676,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 42.27,
        "rotation_up": 29.34,
        "upward_expansion": 17.91,
        "deceleration": 43.68,
        "rotation_down": 28.44,
        "downward_expansion": 63.24
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        5.745333,
        5.584182,
        5.874238,
        6.265097
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 6.71,
    "trend_reference": 6.853667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.020962,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 4.092244,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.639687,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.991711,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.133075,
    "excess_performance": -0.253496,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020962,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060283,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.639687,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.231286,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.089917,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.14828,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.133075,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.996364,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 932600,
      "relative_activity": 1.563152,
      "balance": 0.996364,
      "dry_up": 1.174334,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.109137,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.740172,
      "from_high_reference": -0.303219,
      "from_low_reference": 0.628641
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.853667,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.092244,
      "structural_low": 4.73,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 30,
        "median_return": -0.024839,
        "positive_rate": 0.433333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.533333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03178,
        "regime_survival": 0.833333,
        "best_return": 0.608,
        "worst_return": -0.213068,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.058255,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.094592,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.267241,
        "worst_return": -0.297674,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.084682,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.092632,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.971831,
        "worst_return": -0.408333,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.04529,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.032125,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 2.672414,
        "worst_return": -0.458428,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.271739,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.129032,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013889,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.207483,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 13.039461,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 986300.0,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 45.660386,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 7.303333,
        "fair_value": 3.884359,
        "relative_strength": -17.02336,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 740100.0,
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        "fair_value": 3.947308,
        "relative_strength": -26.679905,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -77.670378,
        "energy": 82.284672,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 58300,
        "typical_volume": 704685.0,
        "trend": 7.188,
        "fair_value": 3.970321,
        "relative_strength": -18.954512,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.148617,
        "energy": 74.192179,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 383000,
        "typical_volume": 696190.0,
        "trend": 7.115667,
        "fair_value": 3.992051,
        "relative_strength": -27.179295,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.000762,
        "energy": 75.075779,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.413333,
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          6.183143,
          6.627935
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 4.95,
        "volume": 552500,
        "typical_volume": 682690.0,
        "trend": 7.032667,
        "fair_value": 4.012436,
        "relative_strength": -30.380593,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.268391,
        "energy": 71.814794,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.241333,
          5.497273,
          6.01919,
          6.488215
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5.33,
        "volume": 734700,
        "typical_volume": 659740.0,
        "trend": 6.955667,
        "fair_value": 4.036474,
        "relative_strength": -25.296187,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.141372,
        "energy": 53.067331,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.242667,
          5.418727,
          5.911952,
          6.378366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5.39,
        "volume": 582700,
        "typical_volume": 620685.0,
        "trend": 6.9,
        "fair_value": 4.059808,
        "relative_strength": -24.272656,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.02035,
        "energy": 49.953167,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.282,
          5.376545,
          5.82419,
          6.277355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.71,
        "volume": 932600,
        "typical_volume": 596615.0,
        "trend": 6.853667,
        "fair_value": 4.092244,
        "relative_strength": -8.991711,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -25.328829,
        "energy": 21.947542,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.745333,
          5.584182,
          5.874238,
          6.265097
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}