{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dbc02ec-efd3-443e-8eb7-b34a1e24ef06", "symbol": "HSY", "name": "The Hershey Company", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.217, "architecture_energy": 87.084, "architecture_maturity": 51.521, "architecture_confidence": 87.856, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 29.97, "upward_expansion": 21.57, "deceleration": 37.18, "rotation_down": 59.0, "downward_expansion": 97.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 3080.0, 3088.182728, 3175.21513, 3302.390165 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3080.0, "trend_reference": 3447.142407, "distance_from_trend": -0.106506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3420.533338, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.194963, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.224711, "excess_performance": -0.170044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028957, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099556, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035081, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.857143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 7.857143, "dry_up": 0.0453, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015454, "annualized_volatility": 0.229041, "from_high_reference": -0.224711, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3447.142407, "fair_value_reference": 3420.533338, "structural_low": 3080.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.018, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.021459, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.086495, "worst_return": -0.095607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047824, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.013802, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.109781, "worst_return": -0.129672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.049041, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110921, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.154768, "worst_return": -0.110734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -13.21589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.822576, "energy": 88.982145, "activity_lines": [ 3084.668669, 3164.756326, 3292.922805, 3405.784274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3080.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 45.2, "trend": 3487.354126, "fair_value": 3446.863322, "relative_strength": -13.140576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.288207, "energy": 89.742022, "activity_lines": [ 3083.334001, 3141.231818, 3257.495432, 3378.638595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3080.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 45.2, "trend": 3473.95022, "fair_value": 3438.086661, "relative_strength": -12.406437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.567797, "energy": 89.025369, "activity_lines": [ 3082.0, 3120.183456, 3226.050116, 3352.357683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3080.0, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 44.15, "trend": 3460.546314, "fair_value": 3429.309999, "relative_strength": -12.597928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.848965, "energy": 87.966548, "activity_lines": [ 3080.666667, 3101.637638, 3198.586857, 3326.94154 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3080.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 44.15, "trend": 3447.142407, "fair_value": 3420.533338, "relative_strength": -12.194963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.217235, "energy": 87.084427, "activity_lines": [ 3080.0, 3088.182728, 3175.21513, 3302.390165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }