{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dbd58f2-8c84-4a78-a1de-e2dbf7e9b902", "symbol": "UDA", "name": "Caldwell U.S. Dividend Advantage Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.757, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.545, "architecture_energy": 24.805, "architecture_maturity": 60.432, "architecture_confidence": 81.416, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.97, "rotation_up": 20.4, "upward_expansion": 56.21, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 40.01, "downward_expansion": 24.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.339593, 17.581637, 17.445343, 17.163741 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.09, "trend_reference": 16.78953, "distance_from_trend": 0.017896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.680277, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164147, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.57451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.099988, "excess_performance": -0.020434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.164147, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022313, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055745, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044481, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099988, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 24.357143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27000, "relative_activity": 13.602015, "balance": 24.357143, "dry_up": 3.463476, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027361, "annualized_volatility": 0.166763, "from_high_reference": -0.073264, "from_low_reference": 0.199938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.78953, "fair_value_reference": 14.680277, "structural_low": 15.440493, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015697, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.01342, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.057131, "worst_return": -0.053391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.0011, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015309, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095571, "worst_return": -0.189703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044648, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039234, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.162219, "worst_return": -0.144888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007736, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059191, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.256911, "worst_return": -0.088613, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002283, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043845, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018791, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020516, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016001, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034534, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046394, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.119764, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000585, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.014918, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 2940.0, "trend": 11.817489, "fair_value": 11.287032, "relative_strength": 1.831934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.944062, "energy": 82.761823, "activity_lines": [ 17.998667, 17.777737, 17.308129, 16.971506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.521091, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 695.0, "trend": 16.600224, "fair_value": 14.581235, "relative_strength": -0.538673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.079543, "energy": 56.847821, "activity_lines": [ 17.826705, 17.766824, 17.364071, 17.036184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.820427, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 635.0, "trend": 16.673602, "fair_value": 14.617281, "relative_strength": 0.893618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.774113, "energy": 41.477077, "activity_lines": [ 17.771946, 17.798269, 17.444724, 17.114907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.08, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 635.0, "trend": 16.739472, "fair_value": 14.648747, "relative_strength": -2.716736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.534043, "energy": 23.018948, "activity_lines": [ 17.511755, 17.688624, 17.447132, 17.141126 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.09, "volume": 27000, "typical_volume": 1985.0, "trend": 16.78953, "fair_value": 14.680277, "relative_strength": -5.57451, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.545143, "energy": 24.804737, "activity_lines": [ 17.339593, 17.581637, 17.445343, 17.163741 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }