{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dbdd656-ec2b-4e77-8fc8-32f779d830a9", "symbol": "600339", "name": "China Petroleum Engineering Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.145, "architecture_energy": 33.556, "architecture_maturity": 63.26, "architecture_confidence": 81.194, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.05, "rotation_up": 27.37, "upward_expansion": 17.94, "deceleration": 46.19, "rotation_down": 33.12, "downward_expansion": 65.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.32, 3.270062, 3.434418, 3.609006 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.34, "trend_reference": 3.760766, "distance_from_trend": -0.111883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.404197, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.746053, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.200957, "excess_performance": -0.157753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015692, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018858, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064145, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200957, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.687976, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 238367224, "relative_activity": 0.578854, "balance": 1.687976, "dry_up": 0.829688, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0744, "annualized_volatility": 0.448772, "from_high_reference": -0.397112, "from_low_reference": 0.113333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.760766, "fair_value_reference": 3.404197, "structural_low": 3.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.025082, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.006927, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.202091, "worst_return": -0.134715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048986, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.008045, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.261324, "worst_return": -0.202073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.109231, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.02683, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202091, "worst_return": -0.132124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.415993, "relative_strength": -8.793042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.661195, "energy": 83.848928, "activity_lines": [ 3.161156, 3.261311, 3.542747, 3.687111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.33, "volume": 466244179, "typical_volume": 470985668.2, "trend": 3.759766, "fair_value": 3.412074, "relative_strength": -5.314022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.608478, "energy": 65.144522, "activity_lines": [ 3.213333, 3.250255, 3.498304, 3.659384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.4, "volume": 296380426, "typical_volume": 432854529.7, "trend": 3.761099, "fair_value": 3.40761, "relative_strength": -3.637597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.67161, "energy": 41.089512, "activity_lines": [ 3.286667, 3.26075, 3.466813, 3.636173 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.34, "volume": 238367224, "typical_volume": 411791675.45, "trend": 3.760766, "fair_value": 3.404197, "relative_strength": -7.746053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.144838, "energy": 33.555535, "activity_lines": [ 3.32, 3.270062, 3.434418, 3.609006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }