{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dc1a260-28db-4d3c-92e9-5f89d4856341", "symbol": "300539", "name": "Ningbo Henghe Precision Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.109, "architecture_energy": 75.462, "architecture_maturity": 64.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.82, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 13.03, "upward_expansion": 17.2, "deceleration": 39.55, "rotation_down": 70.66, "downward_expansion": 90.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.282666, 19.660182, 22.60998, 24.616485 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.280001, "trend_reference": 27.79548, "distance_from_trend": -0.306362, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.528874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040538, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.76222, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.423876, "excess_performance": -0.431276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.306362, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205589, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040538, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.717563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.447622, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.423876, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.720623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44507061, "relative_activity": 1.194326, "balance": 0.720623, "dry_up": 1.050364, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17225, "annualized_volatility": 0.679434, "from_high_reference": -0.680522, "from_low_reference": 0.187192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.79548, "fair_value_reference": 18.528874, "structural_low": 16.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.036715, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.015584, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.208, "worst_return": -0.311287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042673, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.055896, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.328553, "worst_return": -0.227278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.186249, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.257782, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.074646, "worst_return": -0.20018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071744, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095191, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022764, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"volume": 37812864, "typical_volume": 36325953.15, "trend": 29.251873, "fair_value": 18.46285, "relative_strength": -50.393288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.15766, "energy": 65.737358, "activity_lines": [ 19.454666, 20.923091, 23.96469, 25.979533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.389999, "volume": 31405316, "typical_volume": 36277957.9, "trend": 28.545367, "fair_value": 18.487147, "relative_strength": -47.820616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.614361, "energy": 79.307462, "activity_lines": [ 18.463333, 19.999454, 23.170305, 25.214251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.280001, "volume": 44507061, "typical_volume": 37265415.8, "trend": 27.79548, "fair_value": 18.528874, "relative_strength": -44.76222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.109155, "energy": 75.462467, "activity_lines": [ 18.282666, 19.660182, 22.60998, 24.616485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }