{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dc3411f-7598-4eb0-a6d5-c3c972d26bbb", "symbol": "300232", "name": "Unilumin Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.541, "architecture_energy": 71.01, "architecture_maturity": 45.392, "architecture_confidence": 93.469, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 18.97, "upward_expansion": 14.98, "deceleration": 44.5, "rotation_down": 65.12, "downward_expansion": 88.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.074667, 5.248182, 5.622257, 6.043007 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.33, "trend_reference": 6.599822, "distance_from_trend": -0.192402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.601506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192608, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.649574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.317134, "excess_performance": -0.324534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192402, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077638, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192608, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015899, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317134, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733545, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84572019, "relative_activity": 0.803256, "balance": 0.733545, "dry_up": 0.758687, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079752, "annualized_volatility": 0.383884, "from_high_reference": -0.395837, "from_low_reference": 0.141328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.599822, "fair_value_reference": 6.601506, "structural_low": 4.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.011686, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.02855, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.305638, "worst_return": -0.180723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004605, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001205, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.484375, "worst_return": -0.293103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.187438, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.086549, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.489547, "worst_return": -0.282649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -87.083134, "energy": 85.436601, "activity_lines": [ 5.536667, 5.73711, 6.121974, 6.493151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.88, "volume": 78539492, "typical_volume": 155547997.15, "trend": 6.793943, "fair_value": 6.657802, "relative_strength": -32.099592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.732367, "energy": 90.759237, "activity_lines": [ 5.275333, 5.550198, 5.960682, 6.365117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.76, "volume": 72808083, "typical_volume": 129083174.8, "trend": 6.721008, "fair_value": 6.633544, "relative_strength": -33.334461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.910549, "energy": 93.210895, "activity_lines": [ 5.04, 5.370731, 5.804264, 6.233894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.09, "volume": 83598346, "typical_volume": 114304267.15, "trend": 6.657744, "fair_value": 6.616419, "relative_strength": -26.942202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.994924, "energy": 86.998846, "activity_lines": [ 4.993333, 5.276909, 5.694251, 6.128668 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.33, "volume": 84572019, "typical_volume": 105286483.5, "trend": 6.599822, "fair_value": 6.601506, "relative_strength": -26.649574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.54144, "energy": 71.009644, "activity_lines": [ 5.074667, 5.248182, 5.622257, 6.043007 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }