{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dcb6532-b081-4146-8aee-daa843c0f9ba", "symbol": "600511", "name": "China National Medicines Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.712, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.812, "architecture_energy": 15.474, "architecture_maturity": 28.94, "architecture_confidence": 71.504, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.32, "rotation_up": 34.25, "upward_expansion": 25.22, "deceleration": 49.79, "rotation_down": 17.81, "downward_expansion": 44.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.606667, 27.27075, 27.184559, 27.572123 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.530001, "trend_reference": 28.0818, "distance_from_trend": -0.01965, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.715617, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073551, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.228143, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.052976, "excess_performance": -0.009772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01965, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073551, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018339, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032281, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107014, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052976, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.874817, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26001362, "relative_activity": 1.303667, "balance": 0.874817, "dry_up": 1.463296, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044234, "annualized_volatility": 0.190564, "from_high_reference": -0.117062, "from_low_reference": 0.072876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.0818, "fair_value_reference": 29.715617, "structural_low": 25.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.004889, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.023569, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.189329, "worst_return": -0.137982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009247, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.015229, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.126667, "worst_return": -0.13692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007782, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.051629, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.340957, "worst_return": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001253, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007021, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00033, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 20293789.2, "trend": 28.1428, "fair_value": 29.768747, "relative_strength": -2.239169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.138968, "energy": 19.549364, "activity_lines": [ 27.056667, 26.879358, 27.122597, 27.600205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.299999, "volume": 25727737, "typical_volume": 19968202.0, "trend": 28.122466, "fair_value": 29.744407, "relative_strength": 1.899106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.112957, "energy": 14.499383, "activity_lines": [ 27.546666, 27.163282, 27.185102, 27.610347 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.530001, "volume": 26001362, "typical_volume": 19944787.2, "trend": 28.0818, "fair_value": 29.715617, "relative_strength": -3.228143, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.812068, "energy": 15.474094, "activity_lines": [ 27.606667, 27.27075, 27.184559, 27.572123 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }