{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dccfc71-722a-4103-a4b2-0f41fe718339", "symbol": "METL", "name": "iShares Essential Metals Producers UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.15, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.474, "architecture_energy": 28.726, "architecture_maturity": 13.149, "architecture_confidence": 82.132, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.29, "rotation_up": 20.83, "upward_expansion": 5.78, "deceleration": 52.45, "rotation_down": 46.68, "downward_expansion": 74.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.421933, 8.426273, 8.699595, 8.779194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.111, "trend_reference": 8.886167, "distance_from_trend": 0.025301, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.439827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.41479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.589618, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025321, "excess_performance": -0.145571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025301, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.41479, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221589, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025321, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816423, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119467, "relative_activity": 1.065697, "balance": 0.816423, "dry_up": 0.869398, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062097, "annualized_volatility": 0.420572, "from_high_reference": -0.102895, "from_low_reference": 0.83283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.886167, "fair_value_reference": 6.439827, "structural_low": 7.457, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026278, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121906, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 5.6935, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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28.494959, "activity_lines": [ 8.6884, 8.925455, 8.98251, 8.962542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.152, "volume": 198785, "typical_volume": 151231.85, "trend": 8.833167, "fair_value": 6.358885, "relative_strength": -7.639029, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.186435, "energy": 54.863964, "activity_lines": [ 8.466067, 8.764455, 8.901886, 8.920518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.784, "volume": 34376, "typical_volume": 133662.2, "trend": 8.842133, "fair_value": 6.374209, "relative_strength": -10.857452, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.470156, "energy": 69.122488, "activity_lines": [ 8.1776, 8.549964, 8.791252, 8.85283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.19, "volume": 96542, "typical_volume": 122978.15, "trend": 8.855433, "fair_value": 6.393526, "relative_strength": -6.413833, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.363444, "energy": 72.330888, "activity_lines": [ 8.122133, 8.438873, 8.730162, 8.810757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.121, "volume": 139461, "typical_volume": 117474.45, "trend": 8.8658, "fair_value": 6.411709, "relative_strength": -8.25029, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.0493, "energy": 69.537941, "activity_lines": [ 8.098667, 8.332727, 8.666443, 8.763374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.111, "volume": 119467, "typical_volume": 112102.25, "trend": 8.886167, "fair_value": 6.439827, "relative_strength": -0.589618, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.473529, "energy": 28.725617, "activity_lines": [ 8.421933, 8.426273, 8.699595, 8.779194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }