{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dd3b7a3-3db3-4bc7-84a7-f2b6df3876be", "symbol": "SLF", "name": "SPDR ETFs Australia - State Street SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.909, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.901, "architecture_energy": 10.64, "architecture_maturity": 16.864, "architecture_confidence": 58.607, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.08, "rotation_up": 31.99, "upward_expansion": 27.67, "deceleration": 61.4, "rotation_down": 33.76, "downward_expansion": 27.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.576, 12.576685, 12.482054, 12.42108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.82, "trend_reference": 12.501509, "distance_from_trend": 0.025476, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.266117, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045156, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.920367, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.001708, "excess_performance": -0.065414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025476, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024264, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045156, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069204, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020572, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001708, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.277068, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 347935, "relative_activity": 2.106228, "balance": 2.277068, "dry_up": 1.321153, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033075, "annualized_volatility": 0.189954, "from_high_reference": -0.128839, "from_low_reference": 0.143622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.501509, "fair_value_reference": 12.266117, "structural_low": 11.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.009826, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.006563, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.112001, "worst_return": -0.123252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007704, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.185286, "worst_return": -0.132085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034294, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010909, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.16851, "worst_return": -0.203763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 12.207894, "relative_strength": -6.971166, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.05307, "energy": 14.134738, "activity_lines": [ 12.495889, 12.513562, 12.380996, 12.41459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.29, "volume": 180314, "typical_volume": 160776.0, "trend": 12.560563, "fair_value": 12.224223, "relative_strength": -6.21788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.552524, "energy": 20.283542, "activity_lines": [ 12.392265, 12.481672, 12.386588, 12.393775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.69, "volume": 172096, "typical_volume": 160266.05, "trend": 12.526207, "fair_value": 12.244724, "relative_strength": -5.1769, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.945909, "energy": 10.727711, "activity_lines": [ 12.452667, 12.522386, 12.430432, 12.402126 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.82, "volume": 347935, "typical_volume": 165193.45, "trend": 12.501509, "fair_value": 12.266117, "relative_strength": -6.920367, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.901459, "energy": 10.63982, "activity_lines": [ 12.576, 12.576685, 12.482054, 12.42108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }