{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dd5843b-f48c-4bf3-930d-730b492fa0c0", "symbol": "STRX", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.77, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.492, "architecture_energy": 35.795, "architecture_maturity": 25.833, "architecture_confidence": 46.958, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.48, "rotation_up": 48.27, "upward_expansion": 51.2, "deceleration": 36.13, "rotation_down": 31.31, "downward_expansion": 11.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 161.36, 161.054545, 158.609143, 157.080645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 164.5, "trend_reference": 157.087334, "distance_from_trend": 0.047188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 167.128333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015726, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.567313, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01845, "excess_performance": -0.152442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047188, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028013, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076813, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045678, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01845, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.136126, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64, "relative_activity": 0.026116, "balance": 2.136126, "dry_up": 0.061516, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024176, "annualized_volatility": 0.195039, "from_high_reference": -0.08285, "from_low_reference": 0.175504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 157.087334, "fair_value_reference": 167.128333, "structural_low": 139.940002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00714, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011157, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.122642, "worst_return": -0.076676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.118987, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174131, "worst_return": -0.018835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.07832, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.063905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09805, "worst_return": 0.05859, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"close": 156.5, "volume": 278, "typical_volume": 2801.6, "trend": 158.062, "fair_value": 167.236538, "relative_strength": -15.429256, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.166323, "energy": 17.434496, "activity_lines": [ 159.403999, 159.891272, 156.954571, 156.413936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 161.440002, "volume": 161, "typical_volume": 2584.4, "trend": 157.544, "fair_value": 167.163461, "relative_strength": -13.009811, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.138605, "energy": 19.06651, "activity_lines": [ 159.905333, 160.266909, 157.661048, 156.631871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 164.5, "volume": 64, "typical_volume": 2450.6, "trend": 157.087334, "fair_value": 167.128333, "relative_strength": -13.567313, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.492387, "energy": 35.79538, "activity_lines": [ 161.36, 161.054545, 158.609143, 157.080645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }