{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dd797fd-ef46-4ed5-bcc4-72870fb6d9ce", "symbol": "CRVL", "name": "CorVel Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.892, "architecture_energy": 19.224, "architecture_maturity": 43.075, "architecture_confidence": 73.741, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.1, "rotation_up": 32.64, "upward_expansion": 56.18, "deceleration": 85.09, "rotation_down": 23.09, "downward_expansion": 17.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.220667, 61.444364, 60.609, 59.207785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 62.56, "trend_reference": 58.401333, "distance_from_trend": 0.071208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 84.388013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.665305, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.285391, "excess_performance": 0.097938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071208, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053468, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052331, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.285391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.031742, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1217022, "relative_activity": 1.195868, "balance": 1.031742, "dry_up": 0.90042, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077704, "annualized_volatility": 0.254291, "from_high_reference": -0.332373, "from_low_reference": 0.395494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.401333, "fair_value_reference": 84.388013, "structural_low": 44.83, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.027567, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.004975, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.162109, "worst_return": -0.143888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.096148, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.045998, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.242052, "worst_return": -0.15605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.164562, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.069945, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.269286, "worst_return": -0.37295, 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59.193667, "fair_value": 84.585235, "relative_strength": -18.595854, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.506812, "energy": 36.707314, "activity_lines": [ 62.305667, 61.669273, 59.920714, 58.839806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.86, "volume": 717480, "typical_volume": 1059014.4, "trend": 58.886, "fair_value": 84.532692, "relative_strength": -18.742005, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.711642, "energy": 22.306334, "activity_lines": [ 61.616, 61.435636, 60.085429, 58.882796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.06, "volume": 885329, "typical_volume": 1044120.0, "trend": 58.696667, "fair_value": 84.461432, "relative_strength": -17.891964, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.632308, "energy": 17.892626, "activity_lines": [ 60.904, 61.188364, 60.245857, 58.958538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.56, "volume": 1217022, "typical_volume": 1017689.6, "trend": 58.401333, "fair_value": 84.388013, "relative_strength": -17.665305, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.891805, "energy": 19.22426, "activity_lines": [ 61.220667, 61.444364, 60.609, 59.207785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }