{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ddac41e-756a-42af-9ece-2c9969a380d3", "symbol": "LQAG", "name": "Laiqon AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.083, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.484, "architecture_energy": 18.811, "architecture_maturity": 29.073, "architecture_confidence": 55.121, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.51, "rotation_up": 21.73, "upward_expansion": 9.08, "deceleration": 52.67, "rotation_down": 51.24, "downward_expansion": 50.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.518, 4.542182, 4.589619, 4.565828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.51, "trend_reference": 4.571333, "distance_from_trend": -0.013417, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.041667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105455, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.522691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.034261, "excess_performance": -0.098901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013417, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001311, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105455, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001844, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154995, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.024782, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15204, "relative_activity": 0.489197, "balance": 2.024782, "dry_up": 1.1181, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055603, "annualized_volatility": 0.214719, "from_high_reference": -0.191756, "from_low_reference": 0.189974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.571333, "fair_value_reference": 5.041667, "structural_low": 3.79, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.016508, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.029261, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.042184, "worst_return": -0.069231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.052521, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.133907, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.058667, "worst_return": -0.193955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.146667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.197412, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.146667, "worst_return": -0.146667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.49681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.333333, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11335, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.306011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011547, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.06278, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.237209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130952, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.157175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05315, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098501, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052521, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.18, "volume": 6528, "typical_volume": 22135.1, "trend": 7.920667, "fair_value": 8.19302, "relative_strength": 4.09297, "stage": 2, "regime": 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4.593333, 4.669091, 4.596429, 4.596989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.52, "volume": 9272, "typical_volume": 30506.7, "trend": 4.640667, "fair_value": 5.134038, "relative_strength": -3.997173, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.7203, "energy": 16.719369, "activity_lines": [ 4.569333, 4.636182, 4.594667, 4.588452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.58, "volume": 76795, "typical_volume": 30702.6, "trend": 4.625333, "fair_value": 5.112115, "relative_strength": -1.864063, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.751376, "energy": 13.351792, "activity_lines": [ 4.570667, 4.614727, 4.598524, 4.584538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.54, "volume": 12632, "typical_volume": 30703.35, "trend": 4.607333, "fair_value": 5.089808, "relative_strength": -3.841414, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.948176, "energy": 19.159531, "activity_lines": [ 4.556667, 4.589273, 4.598667, 4.579032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.48, "volume": 34369, "typical_volume": 30715.45, "trend": 4.587333, "fair_value": 5.066603, "relative_strength": -6.992093, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.54297, "energy": 15.931209, "activity_lines": [ 4.526, 4.558727, 4.592619, 4.570817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.51, "volume": 15204, "typical_volume": 31079.5, "trend": 4.571333, "fair_value": 5.041667, "relative_strength": -8.522691, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.483527, "energy": 18.811121, "activity_lines": [ 4.518, 4.542182, 4.589619, 4.565828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }