{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ddd6708-e881-48f8-acdb-39666f6e8d52", "symbol": "BASE-B", "name": "Evolve Global Materials & Mining Enhanced Yield Index ETF Unhedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.895, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.857, "architecture_energy": 11.552, "architecture_maturity": 19.844, "architecture_confidence": 70.593, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.46, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 31.4, "deceleration": 72.66, "rotation_down": 39.26, "downward_expansion": 24.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.621592, 32.549444, 33.007066, 32.894022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.82, "trend_reference": 32.582281, "distance_from_trend": 0.037988, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.101905, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.403209, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.935168, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085037, "excess_performance": -0.035384, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070786, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.403209, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029352, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125157, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085037, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575221, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 800, "relative_activity": 0.592593, "balance": 0.575221, "dry_up": 1.259259, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035656, "annualized_volatility": 0.283063, "from_high_reference": -0.029903, "from_low_reference": 0.542144 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.582281, "fair_value_reference": 24.101905, "structural_low": 29.09609, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008721, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.011708, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.053824, "worst_return": -0.120213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050433, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.026547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121925, "worst_return": -0.076705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072465, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.054332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271706, "worst_return": -0.080049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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31.922672, "fair_value": 23.800289, "relative_strength": -0.487356, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.402153, "energy": 25.686601, "activity_lines": [ 32.390858, 33.101841, 33.196274, 32.833162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.064617, "volume": 3900, "typical_volume": 2615.0, "trend": 32.066889, "fair_value": 23.868331, "relative_strength": -1.6914, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.126013, "energy": 42.921206, "activity_lines": [ 31.739911, 32.652697, 33.013338, 32.777804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.124538, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 2060.0, "trend": 32.229783, "fair_value": 23.938303, "relative_strength": 1.160713, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.843826, "energy": 47.057481, "activity_lines": [ 31.693845, 32.452638, 32.946595, 32.781523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.57, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1630.0, "trend": 32.416486, "fair_value": 24.015035, "relative_strength": 2.678306, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.236818, "energy": 39.057402, "activity_lines": [ 31.956039, 32.380495, 32.920868, 32.803472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.82, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 1350.0, "trend": 32.582281, "fair_value": 24.101905, "relative_strength": 2.935168, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.85681, "energy": 11.552143, "activity_lines": [ 32.621592, 32.549444, 33.007066, 32.894022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }