{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ddd8c2c-a072-494e-965e-1762fe7eca06", "symbol": "HTA", "name": "Harvest Tech Leaders Income ETF Class A CAD Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.161, "architecture_energy": 40.257, "architecture_maturity": 69.296, "architecture_confidence": 92.697, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.95, "rotation_up": 37.57, "upward_expansion": 65.76, "deceleration": 94.24, "rotation_down": 29.08, "downward_expansion": 15.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.801371, 21.791642, 21.423422, 20.608433 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.635, "trend_reference": 19.64812, "distance_from_trend": 0.152019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.217259, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395735, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.45847, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.2782, "excess_performance": 0.157779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.152019, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066806, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060572, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064585, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032889, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2782, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.891563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92300, "relative_activity": 0.801598, "balance": 1.891563, "dry_up": 1.004169, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047201, "annualized_volatility": 0.247016, "from_high_reference": -0.009409, "from_low_reference": 0.408365 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.64812, "fair_value_reference": 16.217259, "structural_low": 16.071827, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.046458, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.032011, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.096624, "worst_return": -0.011005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072208, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037624, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148782, "worst_return": 0.052783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.129563, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.016018, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24592, "worst_return": -0.09826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034503, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.248974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.052696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008979, "active": false }, { 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16.025972, "relative_strength": 2.435226, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.041427, "energy": 42.952278, "activity_lines": [ 21.727964, 21.80506, 20.965518, 20.158988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.032015, "volume": 98200, "typical_volume": 113515.0, "trend": 19.403071, "fair_value": 16.082878, "relative_strength": 1.712308, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.421008, "energy": 34.925943, "activity_lines": [ 21.442244, 21.677267, 21.069798, 20.269685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.530001, "volume": 103200, "typical_volume": 114510.0, "trend": 19.511333, "fair_value": 16.145807, "relative_strength": 4.582406, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.114184, "energy": 30.354216, "activity_lines": [ 21.43622, 21.63759, 21.204107, 20.406907 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.635, "volume": 92300, "typical_volume": 115145.0, "trend": 19.64812, "fair_value": 16.217259, "relative_strength": 6.45847, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.160571, "energy": 40.256872, "activity_lines": [ 21.801371, 21.791642, 21.423422, 20.608433 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }