{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dde7649-7dd9-4f6b-ae37-f731f08ef724", "symbol": "PHX", "name": "PharmX Technologies Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.321, "architecture_energy": 49.744, "architecture_maturity": 20.594, "architecture_confidence": 75.796, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.19, "rotation_up": 8.92, "upward_expansion": 5.98, "deceleration": 44.43, "rotation_down": 70.06, "downward_expansion": 79.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.107667, 0.113682, 0.114812, 0.115044 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.1, "trend_reference": 0.118683, "distance_from_trend": -0.157422, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.077412, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291788, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.723978, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.230769, "excess_performance": -0.294475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157422, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066221, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291788, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.149292, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1104602, "relative_activity": 0.952917, "balance": 0.149292, "dry_up": 0.512247, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135769, "annualized_volatility": 0.610728, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.190476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.118683, "fair_value_reference": 0.077412, "structural_low": 0.084, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051301, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.075372, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.26469, "worst_return": -0.185185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.14906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228553, "worst_return": -0.185185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.239277, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.22631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": 0.228553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.659574, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.223684, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.413043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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0.12, "volume": 1381802, "typical_volume": 2399835.3, "trend": 0.124267, "fair_value": 0.075054, "relative_strength": -3.265414, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.713024, "energy": 24.269725, "activity_lines": [ 0.125, 0.122509, 0.116538, 0.118931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.12, "volume": 1281870, "typical_volume": 2242071.8, "trend": 0.1236, "fair_value": 0.075601, "relative_strength": -3.290539, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.142545, "energy": 11.646798, "activity_lines": [ 0.123333, 0.122909, 0.116976, 0.118656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1125, "volume": 9597, "typical_volume": 1622079.85, "trend": 0.12285, "fair_value": 0.076088, "relative_strength": -9.54908, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.317391, "energy": 13.944923, "activity_lines": [ 0.1195, 0.121364, 0.116795, 0.11794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.11, "volume": 972479, "typical_volume": 1384241.3, "trend": 0.121683, "fair_value": 0.076555, "relative_strength": -11.447597, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.002595, "energy": 23.209537, "activity_lines": [ 0.115333, 0.119409, 0.116436, 0.117111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.11, "volume": 288466, "typical_volume": 1217782.9, "trend": 0.12035, "fair_value": 0.077021, "relative_strength": -13.548161, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.789871, "energy": 26.527886, "activity_lines": [ 0.1125, 0.117455, 0.1161, 0.116357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1, "volume": 1104602, "typical_volume": 1159179.9, "trend": 0.118683, "fair_value": 0.077412, "relative_strength": -23.723978, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.320946, "energy": 49.743927, "activity_lines": [ 0.107667, 0.113682, 0.114812, 0.115044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }