{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2de3c6eb-5128-4c9d-8946-57ba13e5892b", "symbol": "BXMT", "name": "Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -92.104, "architecture_energy": 94.901, "architecture_maturity": 37.249, "architecture_confidence": 79.411, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.65, "upward_expansion": 21.85, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 87.84, "downward_expansion": 99.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.346, 16.149434, 17.008287, 17.489989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 14.15, "trend_reference": 18.039678, "distance_from_trend": -0.215618, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.863516, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16091, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.455593, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26072, "excess_performance": -0.386345, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215618, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034042, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16091, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274205, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26072, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.36059, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18861694, "relative_activity": 2.25617, "balance": 0.36059, "dry_up": 1.495291, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066944, "annualized_volatility": 0.265435, "from_high_reference": -0.307391, "from_low_reference": 0.03059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.039678, "fair_value_reference": 16.863516, "structural_low": 13.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.007426, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.020152, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.142026, "worst_return": -0.23837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.046071, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.091365, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.200948, "worst_return": -0.150596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002056, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.144408, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.08096, "worst_return": -0.207288, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030614, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106904, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014026, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000521, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.632715, "energy": 62.371563, "activity_lines": [ 17.213178, 17.425587, 17.950607, 18.200029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.08, "volume": 9018729, "typical_volume": 7296980.85, "trend": 18.422652, "fair_value": 16.895297, "relative_strength": -14.20954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.7612, "energy": 63.449347, "activity_lines": [ 17.124759, 17.330673, 17.83945, 18.108918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.69, "volume": 6715759, "typical_volume": 7366036.75, "trend": 18.349925, "fair_value": 16.892209, "relative_strength": -15.289329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.958245, "energy": 61.804965, "activity_lines": [ 16.958649, 17.192738, 17.699101, 17.997134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.54, "volume": 15406641, "typical_volume": 7885101.35, "trend": 18.200814, "fair_value": 16.87701, "relative_strength": -26.54127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.751523, "energy": 87.645343, "activity_lines": [ 16.136667, 16.679943, 17.363753, 17.751332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.15, "volume": 18861694, "typical_volume": 8360048.25, "trend": 18.039678, "fair_value": 16.863516, "relative_strength": -30.455593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.103605, "energy": 94.901443, "activity_lines": [ 15.346, 16.149434, 17.008287, 17.489989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }