{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2de7aaad-0632-4f2d-82c0-d37951774e1e", "symbol": "688186", "name": "Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.94, "architecture_energy": 73.711, "architecture_maturity": 56.914, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 25.36, "upward_expansion": 16.11, "deceleration": 42.89, "rotation_down": 59.06, "downward_expansion": 89.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.194667, 14.634909, 16.583714, 18.359462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.66, "trend_reference": 20.503, "distance_from_trend": -0.284983, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.995039, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.379396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351614, "excess_performance": -0.308411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.284983, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111886, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22822, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290112, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.343794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130895, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351614, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.513236, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26682924, "relative_activity": 0.949304, "balance": 0.513236, "dry_up": 0.776585, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106884, "annualized_volatility": 0.542883, "from_high_reference": -0.546691, "from_low_reference": 0.127692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.503, "fair_value_reference": 18.995039, "structural_low": 13.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.040463, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022475, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.445771, "worst_return": -0.189189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.103015, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.050943, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.89742, "worst_return": -0.31909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.050559, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041585, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.278217, "worst_return": -0.367539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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87.145383, "activity_lines": [ 15.352, 16.659273, 18.830286, 20.225742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.74, "volume": 20040059, "typical_volume": 42290133.1, "trend": 21.379, "fair_value": 19.257058, "relative_strength": -37.70155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.567993, "energy": 87.516252, "activity_lines": [ 14.722667, 15.916, 18.153762, 19.712237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.39, "volume": 22240853, "typical_volume": 33915373.35, "trend": 21.068667, "fair_value": 19.151089, "relative_strength": -39.411456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.118157, "energy": 88.265359, "activity_lines": [ 14.173333, 15.250727, 17.497286, 19.196817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.2, "volume": 18348795, "typical_volume": 29878496.7, "trend": 20.770333, "fair_value": 19.062767, "relative_strength": -35.359963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.545212, "energy": 78.191664, "activity_lines": [ 14.102, 14.851273, 16.988714, 18.753678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.66, "volume": 26682924, "typical_volume": 28107892.2, "trend": 20.503, "fair_value": 18.995039, "relative_strength": -34.379396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.93969, "energy": 73.710841, "activity_lines": [ 14.194667, 14.634909, 16.583714, 18.359462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }