{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2deb75d0-d746-4518-bcb1-06d581f8aae5", "symbol": "IZER", "name": "izertis, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.334, "architecture_energy": 50.862, "architecture_maturity": 10.718, "architecture_confidence": 88.156, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.56, "rotation_up": 14.63, "upward_expansion": 8.94, "deceleration": 41.76, "rotation_down": 63.82, "downward_expansion": 84.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.453333, 8.548, 8.655714, 8.746086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.44, "trend_reference": 8.969, "distance_from_trend": -0.058981, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.304936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092955, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.313349, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120833, "excess_performance": -0.245264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058981, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050263, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092955, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63901, "relative_activity": 0.815249, "balance": 1.013644, "dry_up": 0.441666, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047393, "annualized_volatility": 0.266265, "from_high_reference": -0.278632, "from_low_reference": 0.071066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.969, "fair_value_reference": 9.304936, "structural_low": 7.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.01087, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.024502, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.103896, "worst_return": -0.071588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059964, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.023692, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.176136, "worst_return": -0.068041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102601, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.034392, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.142119, "worst_return": -0.025189, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032051, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121795, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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-22.159977, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.074219, "energy": 61.163559, "activity_lines": [ 8.564, 8.705818, 8.755048, 8.877806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.24, "volume": 16323, "typical_volume": 77276.4, "trend": 9.102667, "fair_value": 9.293141, "relative_strength": -24.312856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.059642, "energy": 71.655104, "activity_lines": [ 8.428, 8.610909, 8.701905, 8.81729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.6, "volume": 30500, "typical_volume": 77244.15, "trend": 9.041, "fair_value": 9.299295, "relative_strength": -21.038892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.366312, "energy": 57.739632, "activity_lines": [ 8.468, 8.593091, 8.685619, 8.78486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.44, "volume": 63901, "typical_volume": 78382.15, "trend": 8.969, "fair_value": 9.304936, "relative_strength": -23.313349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.333564, "energy": 50.862122, "activity_lines": [ 8.453333, 8.548, 8.655714, 8.746086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }