{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2debc4bd-d6fa-4448-b5e3-8f9271d67e95", "symbol": "ISPY", "name": "L&G Cyber Security UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.68, "architecture_energy": 68.762, "architecture_maturity": 87.42, "architecture_confidence": 86.378, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 58.44, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.6, "rotation_down": 27.97, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.685, 38.090091, 35.743548, 33.361871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.349998, "trend_reference": 30.460667, "distance_from_trend": 0.324659, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.445295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.585755, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.853425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.701814, "excess_performance": 0.530922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.324659, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128584, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.585755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.346578, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.198534, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.224236, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.701814, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.104593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134858, "relative_activity": 0.919866, "balance": 4.104593, "dry_up": 0.801728, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053865, "annualized_volatility": 0.343498, "from_high_reference": -0.024066, "from_low_reference": 0.768961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.460667, "fair_value_reference": 25.445295, "structural_low": 22.809999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.001933, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.007853, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.103884, "worst_return": -0.103246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015891, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.02618, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.132577, "worst_return": -0.171491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021649, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.10659, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.13734, "worst_return": -0.089402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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74.660288, "activity_lines": [ 36.513667, 35.320183, 32.145477, 30.310957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.5, "volume": 115671, "typical_volume": 151022.25, "trend": 28.8355, "fair_value": 24.940583, "relative_strength": 20.959951, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.264451, "energy": 84.178939, "activity_lines": [ 37.645667, 36.357819, 33.074, 31.025463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.935001, "volume": 169705, "typical_volume": 149015.25, "trend": 29.247334, "fair_value": 25.069603, "relative_strength": 20.627589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.472985, "energy": 84.35719, "activity_lines": [ 38.369334, 37.06991, 33.880167, 31.677043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.285, "volume": 73707, "typical_volume": 145112.4, "trend": 29.607667, "fair_value": 25.187032, "relative_strength": 15.515743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.636061, "energy": 67.032247, "activity_lines": [ 38.277667, 37.31391, 34.456143, 32.195603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.325001, "volume": 91883, "typical_volume": 145195.55, "trend": 29.990167, "fair_value": 25.305974, "relative_strength": 14.611413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.615644, "energy": 64.763184, "activity_lines": [ 38.018667, 37.457819, 34.981524, 32.693495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.349998, "volume": 134858, "typical_volume": 146606.1, "trend": 30.460667, "fair_value": 25.445295, "relative_strength": 19.853425, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.679664, "energy": 68.761924, "activity_lines": [ 38.685, 38.090091, 35.743548, 33.361871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }