{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2deceed4-5f41-4a2f-a3b0-81af2ac628e1", "symbol": "SBOK", "name": "ScandBook Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.523, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.681, "architecture_energy": 58.263, "architecture_maturity": 15.473, "architecture_confidence": 71.65, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.55, "rotation_up": 18.47, "upward_expansion": 20.13, "deceleration": 44.6, "rotation_down": 68.87, "downward_expansion": 61.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.180001, 49.367273, 51.804201, 52.282826 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.200001, "trend_reference": 52.063507, "distance_from_trend": -0.093415, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.782887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.679144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.041998, "excess_performance": -0.019496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093415, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026341, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.433715, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318911, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041998, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.375684, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12440, "relative_activity": 0.874188, "balance": 0.375684, "dry_up": 0.434705, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074012, "annualized_volatility": 0.35964, "from_high_reference": -0.269368, "from_low_reference": 0.225576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.063507, "fair_value_reference": 35.782887, "structural_low": 41.570563, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.071685, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007759, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.093646, "worst_return": -0.133758, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.006335, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.08378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172043, "worst_return": -0.184713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.064128, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.11058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179211, "worst_return": -0.050955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083799, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.409381, "active": false }, { 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"close": 51.900002, "volume": 13211, "typical_volume": 17983.25, "trend": 51.910698, "fair_value": 35.102365, "relative_strength": -3.497844, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.714222, "energy": 26.435659, "activity_lines": [ 51.700001, 53.472728, 54.264804, 53.365149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.5, "volume": 1253, "typical_volume": 16683.25, "trend": 52.010846, "fair_value": 35.242178, "relative_strength": -4.105839, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.16404, "energy": 33.442592, "activity_lines": [ 51.226667, 52.667156, 53.906555, 53.274136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.799999, "volume": 2457, "typical_volume": 15703.1, "trend": 52.047956, "fair_value": 35.377546, "relative_strength": -6.422774, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.766559, "energy": 45.211578, "activity_lines": [ 50.366667, 51.655983, 53.396213, 53.066984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.0, "volume": 5138, "typical_volume": 14337.5, "trend": 52.091733, "fair_value": 35.517422, "relative_strength": -7.514125, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.636415, "energy": 39.905155, "activity_lines": [ 49.76, 50.871173, 52.931018, 52.870342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.900002, "volume": 4709, "typical_volume": 14276.3, "trend": 52.114771, "fair_value": 35.652398, "relative_strength": -10.763195, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.481185, "energy": 51.560969, "activity_lines": [ 48.986667, 50.072728, 52.386206, 52.599908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.200001, "volume": 12440, "typical_volume": 14230.35, "trend": 52.063507, "fair_value": 35.782887, "relative_strength": -13.679144, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.681255, "energy": 58.262758, "activity_lines": [ 48.180001, 49.367273, 51.804201, 52.282826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }