{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2df14aab-b101-4540-809c-cbc267391ad7", "symbol": "BERNER-B", "name": "Berner Industrier AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.737, "architecture_energy": 22.057, "architecture_maturity": 76.107, "architecture_confidence": 78.73, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.58, "rotation_up": 32.47, "upward_expansion": 22.08, "deceleration": 43.93, "rotation_down": 25.53, "downward_expansion": 58.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.126667, 77.559999, 78.719564, 82.725517 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 83.0, "trend_reference": 88.258018, "distance_from_trend": -0.059576, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.339547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.585799, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.175702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.185821, "excess_performance": -0.247315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059576, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03475, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.585799, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082217, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.934377, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166415, "relative_activity": 0.678025, "balance": 0.934377, "dry_up": 0.577942, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071455, "annualized_volatility": 0.38274, "from_high_reference": -0.282829, "from_low_reference": 0.250261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.258018, "fair_value_reference": 52.339547, "structural_low": 71.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.012048, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.014473, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.167213, "worst_return": -0.136646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006749, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006057, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.206557, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.056466, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095828, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.757065, "worst_return": -0.225806, "sufficient": false }, { 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"direction": -60.574627, "energy": 45.765846, "activity_lines": [ 75.826665, 76.232726, 79.921085, 84.709026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.800003, "volume": 84777, "typical_volume": 257403.5, "trend": 89.346309, "fair_value": 51.601621, "relative_strength": -16.359959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.191391, "energy": 40.593326, "activity_lines": [ 76.22, 76.225454, 79.188495, 83.860131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.599998, "volume": 121552, "typical_volume": 249020.0, "trend": 88.840208, "fair_value": 51.954467, "relative_strength": -16.469077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.136316, "energy": 33.840757, "activity_lines": [ 76.84, 76.40909, 78.64948, 83.102305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.0, "volume": 166415, "typical_volume": 245440.8, "trend": 88.258018, "fair_value": 52.339547, "relative_strength": -12.175702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.737242, "energy": 22.057436, "activity_lines": [ 79.126667, 77.559999, 78.719564, 82.725517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }