{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2df58fb7-0cad-4042-8fbb-188386e71b1e", "symbol": "S69", "name": "Serial System Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 56.128, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.977, "architecture_energy": 10.033, "architecture_maturity": 11.091, "architecture_confidence": 58.488, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.21, "rotation_up": 22.58, "upward_expansion": 11.38, "deceleration": 55.57, "rotation_down": 44.27, "downward_expansion": 41.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.074067, 0.074527, 0.074831, 0.074289 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.074, "trend_reference": 0.074473, "distance_from_trend": -0.006348, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.058213, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.271188, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.213132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001353, "excess_performance": -0.153482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006348, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014685, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.271188, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001045, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001353, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.962067, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263500, "relative_activity": 0.053275, "balance": 1.962067, "dry_up": 0.266099, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06422, "annualized_volatility": 0.340404, "from_high_reference": -0.277873, "from_low_reference": 0.788131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.074473, "fair_value_reference": 0.058213, "structural_low": 0.05912, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.000306, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.717397, "worst_return": -0.137248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019993, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.072184, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.749994, "worst_return": -0.195406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040006, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.069452, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.79072, "worst_return": -0.310345, "sufficient": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.075, "volume": 2297900, "typical_volume": 6308475.0, "trend": 0.074959, "fair_value": 0.058269, "relative_strength": -10.848475, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.305808, "energy": 7.742569, "activity_lines": [ 0.074467, 0.075291, 0.074877, 0.074452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.073, "volume": 1827600, "typical_volume": 5521215.0, "trend": 0.074568, "fair_value": 0.058244, "relative_strength": -14.044917, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.840943, "energy": 9.64248, "activity_lines": [ 0.074067, 0.074818, 0.074809, 0.074326 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.074, "volume": 263500, "typical_volume": 4946000.0, "trend": 0.074473, "fair_value": 0.058213, "relative_strength": -14.213132, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.977204, "energy": 10.032676, "activity_lines": [ 0.074067, 0.074527, 0.074831, 0.074289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }