{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2df93a09-d5de-417a-9cf4-05344c80107f", "symbol": "ANNX", "name": "Annexon\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.681, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.221, "architecture_energy": 14.483, "architecture_maturity": 28.262, "architecture_confidence": 65.83, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.76, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 11.94, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 35.71, "downward_expansion": 64.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.366, 5.377182, 5.402405, 5.430742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.41, "trend_reference": 5.515167, "distance_from_trend": -0.019069, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.31891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.074278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.055846, "excess_performance": -0.2433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019069, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252631, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020743, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.330887, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11858671, "relative_activity": 0.792005, "balance": 1.330887, "dry_up": 1.08667, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14931, "annualized_volatility": 0.569055, "from_high_reference": -0.246518, "from_low_reference": 1.665025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.515167, "fair_value_reference": 4.31891, "structural_low": 4.46, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.059343, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.030949, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.74717, "worst_return": -0.491525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.358842, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.24299, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.875472, "worst_return": -0.369979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.504417, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.363567, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.166038, "worst_return": -0.384778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.262156, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.235055, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.273859, "worst_return": -0.663158, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.513208, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07489, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.515789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.274538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087838, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.433333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.39834, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097179, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.575646, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113946, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018832, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.93, "volume": 1277155, "typical_volume": 3727362.6, "trend": 4.398167, "fair_value": 12.853494, "relative_strength": -50.294261, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"volume": 11858671, "typical_volume": 14972966.5, "trend": 5.515167, "fair_value": 4.31891, "relative_strength": 2.074278, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.221251, "energy": 14.483139, "activity_lines": [ 5.366, 5.377182, 5.402405, 5.430742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }