{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dfa3aab-f61f-48d1-99cf-e46aac0f2d1a", "symbol": "BRSR6", "name": "Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.269, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.311, "architecture_energy": 47.719, "architecture_maturity": 45.8, "architecture_confidence": 91.688, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.8, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 7.2, "deceleration": 55.79, "rotation_down": 49.21, "downward_expansion": 80.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.946, 13.987983, 14.331025, 14.967581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.75, "trend_reference": 15.788694, "distance_from_trend": -0.129124, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.347161, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.769779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218551, "excess_performance": -0.161503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129124, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037801, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.723405, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8032200, "relative_activity": 1.363715, "balance": 0.723405, "dry_up": 0.883842, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056266, "annualized_volatility": 0.307832, "from_high_reference": -0.271055, "from_low_reference": 0.410198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.788694, "fair_value_reference": 11.347161, "structural_low": 13.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013688, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.023828, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.142105, "worst_return": -0.112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.12729, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.109945, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.326316, "worst_return": -0.073187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001583, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.60299, "worst_return": -0.029501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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11.310411, "relative_strength": -5.449328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.353681, "energy": 48.213091, "activity_lines": [ 14.032, 14.067647, 14.567977, 15.224175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.06, "volume": 4584100, "typical_volume": 6083655.0, "trend": 15.877253, "fair_value": 11.329024, "relative_strength": -7.456965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.281243, "energy": 43.396456, "activity_lines": [ 14.048667, 14.052595, 14.458161, 15.104823 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.75, "volume": 8032200, "typical_volume": 5889940.0, "trend": 15.788694, "fair_value": 11.347161, "relative_strength": -6.769779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.311289, "energy": 47.718746, "activity_lines": [ 13.946, 13.987983, 14.331025, 14.967581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }