{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2dff213b-165b-4fab-b09b-43047bff9cb9", "symbol": "300129", "name": "TSP Wind Power Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.308, "architecture_energy": 80.513, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.457, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.36, "rotation_up": 12.81, "upward_expansion": 19.59, "deceleration": 37.8, "rotation_down": 71.24, "downward_expansion": 92.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.790507, 8.325316, 9.323211, 10.291218 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.24, "trend_reference": 11.628507, "distance_from_trend": -0.291397, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.50083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.330962, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.398101, "excess_performance": -0.405501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.291397, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002786, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030683, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.517961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.312577, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.398101, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.288771, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121595779, "relative_activity": 0.85622, "balance": 0.288771, "dry_up": 0.958264, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151255, "annualized_volatility": 0.730388, "from_high_reference": -0.55266, "from_low_reference": 0.22514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.628507, "fair_value_reference": 8.50083, "structural_low": 6.72576, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.055702, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.008611, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.311054, "worst_return": -0.27169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.127654, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.039032, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.401527, "worst_return": -0.140209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012225, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.081893, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.433483, "worst_return": -0.21109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -28.713498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.646084, "energy": 62.036256, "activity_lines": [ 8.782789, 9.202564, 10.239093, 11.090619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.02336, "volume": 132071008, "typical_volume": 173988544.7, "trend": 11.787507, "fair_value": 8.514236, "relative_strength": -30.612359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.347165, "energy": 66.576827, "activity_lines": [ 8.127787, 8.722051, 9.840642, 10.779606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.68, "volume": 113859563, "typical_volume": 157795679.65, "trend": 11.702507, "fair_value": 8.505864, "relative_strength": -22.876428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.472668, "energy": 77.866895, "activity_lines": [ 7.83744, 8.441775, 9.536522, 10.514606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.24, "volume": 121595779, "typical_volume": 142014608.4, "trend": 11.628507, "fair_value": 8.50083, "relative_strength": -21.330962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.307657, "energy": 80.512805, "activity_lines": [ 7.790507, 8.325316, 9.323211, 10.291218 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }