{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e001580-94c0-4be3-a102-09822f30dcfa", "symbol": "3435", "name": "Hang Seng Cms Bloomberg Us Treasury 7-10 Year Index Etf", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.193, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.673, "architecture_energy": 72.026, "architecture_maturity": 19.163, "architecture_confidence": 82.491, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.94, "rotation_up": 12.53, "upward_expansion": 16.2, "deceleration": 38.23, "rotation_down": 74.65, "downward_expansion": 94.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.886666, 74.100247, 74.390505, 74.652996 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 73.860001, "trend_reference": 74.949566, "distance_from_trend": -0.014537, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 73.376373, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.30228, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.019845, "excess_performance": 0.013736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014537, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003517, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006591, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020221, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013023, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010936, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019845, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.044125, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11270, "relative_activity": 0.558861, "balance": 0.044125, "dry_up": 0.6837, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007005, "annualized_volatility": 0.041325, "from_high_reference": -0.03903, "from_low_reference": 0.008787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.949566, "fair_value_reference": 73.376373, "structural_low": 73.559998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002832, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022725, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.000545, "worst_return": -0.005118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.559998, "volume": 32060, "typical_volume": 20072.0, "trend": 75.030783, "fair_value": 73.365281, "relative_strength": 0.918569, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.38194, "energy": 75.25878, "activity_lines": [ 74.09162, 74.282537, 74.558389, 74.800283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.879997, "volume": 7410, "typical_volume": 20293.0, "trend": 74.992157, "fair_value": 73.371, "relative_strength": -2.165289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.604478, "energy": 72.767864, "activity_lines": [ 73.957331, 74.188846, 74.471792, 74.726039 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.860001, "volume": 11270, "typical_volume": 20166.0, "trend": 74.949566, "fair_value": 73.376373, "relative_strength": -1.30228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.672625, "energy": 72.025917, "activity_lines": [ 73.886666, 74.100247, 74.390505, 74.652996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }