{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e04ff81-228b-4728-ac57-1a557b34b1ee", "symbol": "UCTD", "name": "iShares MSCI USA Climate Transition Aware UCITS ETF USD Inc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.538, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.437, "architecture_energy": 74.085, "architecture_maturity": 65.781, "architecture_confidence": 75.699, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.51, "rotation_up": 61.72, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 66.87, "rotation_down": 28.48, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.857733, 6.821923, 6.751829, 6.62381 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.037, "trend_reference": 6.483208, "distance_from_trend": 0.085419, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.804975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212236, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.974802, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123224, "excess_performance": 0.006562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085419, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028517, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.212236, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034084, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009748, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123224, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.361658, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5190, "relative_activity": 0.193123, "balance": 1.361658, "dry_up": 0.63445, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012399, "annualized_volatility": 0.125026, "from_high_reference": -0.002127, "from_low_reference": 0.210928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.483208, "fair_value_reference": 5.804975, "structural_low": 5.927, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010097, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.036329, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.035919, "worst_return": -0.011001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.050302, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058849, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.050302, "worst_return": -0.050302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.081344, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038118, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.081344, "worst_return": 0.081344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"direction": 52.868294, "energy": 55.7433, "activity_lines": [ 6.773133, 6.775838, 6.706716, 6.586679 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.037, "volume": 5190, "typical_volume": 26874.05, "trend": 6.483208, "fair_value": 5.804975, "relative_strength": -0.974802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.437432, "energy": 74.084704, "activity_lines": [ 6.857733, 6.821923, 6.751829, 6.62381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }