{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e091724-3cf6-4d55-951e-fbac2e9488c1", "symbol": "300520", "name": "GuoChuang Software Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.971, "architecture_energy": 62.412, "architecture_maturity": 46.135, "architecture_confidence": 89.417, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 18.73, "upward_expansion": 11.12, "deceleration": 52.9, "rotation_down": 64.44, "downward_expansion": 84.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.688, 25.598909, 28.887238, 31.689355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.379999, "trend_reference": 35.702, "distance_from_trend": -0.261106, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.085513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051603, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.021391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.417274, "excess_performance": -0.424674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.261106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086072, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051603, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.506695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216113, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.417274, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.654139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60802264, "relative_activity": 1.109959, "balance": 0.654139, "dry_up": 1.007845, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130139, "annualized_volatility": 0.521732, "from_high_reference": -0.52262, "from_low_reference": 0.273781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.702, "fair_value_reference": 25.085513, "structural_low": 20.709999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.028443, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.039044, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.407096, "worst_return": -0.219653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.108088, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.127375, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.73824, "worst_return": -0.12766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.083955, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.118633, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.737063, "worst_return": -0.145759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -73.952701, "energy": 86.640267, "activity_lines": [ 27.462667, 29.67, 32.406953, 34.939312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.440001, "volume": 44333896, "typical_volume": 61276532.1, "trend": 36.841334, "fair_value": 25.035641, "relative_strength": -33.304343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.162678, "energy": 92.649305, "activity_lines": [ 25.642001, 27.960909, 31.223143, 33.982839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.309999, "volume": 48765851, "typical_volume": 56217660.0, "trend": 36.402, "fair_value": 25.034103, "relative_strength": -33.687056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.923782, "energy": 89.652757, "activity_lines": [ 24.198667, 26.516, 30.138238, 33.045334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.99, "volume": 66932296, "typical_volume": 55122893.65, "trend": 35.985667, "fair_value": 25.050769, "relative_strength": -24.433207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.115486, "energy": 74.568037, "activity_lines": [ 24.144667, 25.822, 29.408191, 32.309075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.379999, "volume": 60802264, "typical_volume": 54778820.9, "trend": 35.702, "fair_value": 25.085513, "relative_strength": -24.021391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.971162, "energy": 62.411574, "activity_lines": [ 24.688, 25.598909, 28.887238, 31.689355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }