{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2e105019-a8c7-4562-ab58-5040673cba9a", "symbol": "SNAP", "name": "Snap Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.275, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.426, "architecture_energy": 21.873, "architecture_maturity": 29.726, "architecture_confidence": 63.626, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.28, "rotation_up": 23.95, "upward_expansion": 15.68, "deceleration": 61.21, "rotation_down": 39.16, "downward_expansion": 63.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.813333, 4.767273, 5.049714, 5.102065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.33, "trend_reference": 5.319333, "distance_from_trend": 0.002005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.698974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.450457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.902548, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021073, "excess_performance": -0.104552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002005, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161033, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.450457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046821, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003573, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021073, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.663432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 329860885, "relative_activity": 1.427553, "balance": 0.663432, "dry_up": 0.879938, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120232, "annualized_volatility": 0.646758, "from_high_reference": -0.425647, "from_low_reference": 0.39895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.319333, "fair_value_reference": 9.698974, "structural_low": 3.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.005129, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.034013, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.358531, "worst_return": -0.466036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.05609, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.097796, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.900112, "worst_return": -0.562103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.092437, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.271154, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.28844, "worst_return": -0.690318, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.999936, "energy": 66.20173, "activity_lines": [ 4.624667, 4.880182, 5.141619, 5.245441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.35, "volume": 142331069, "typical_volume": 226541997.05, "trend": 5.53, "fair_value": 9.767949, "relative_strength": -38.410828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.031802, "energy": 59.608597, "activity_lines": [ 4.533333, 4.742, 5.066714, 5.161763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.69, "volume": 159078614, "typical_volume": 222633380.15, "trend": 5.415333, "fair_value": 9.729103, "relative_strength": -33.182474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.264445, "energy": 44.579623, "activity_lines": [ 4.576, 4.687091, 5.028048, 5.10757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.33, "volume": 329860885, "typical_volume": 231067332.65, "trend": 5.319333, "fair_value": 9.698974, "relative_strength": -25.902548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.426344, "energy": 21.872576, "activity_lines": [ 4.813333, 4.767273, 5.049714, 5.102065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }